Germany 2026: Merz, the AfD & the State of German Democracy
Europe’s largest economy is governed by a CDU/CSU-SPD Grand Coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The AfD sits as the strongest opposition party. Germany is navigating defense spending, immigration politics and economic headwinds — all in an era of shifting transatlantic relations.
2025 Bundestag Election Results
Final official result, February 23, 2025FDP (4.9%) and BSW (4.97%) fell below the 5% threshold and received no list seats. Die Linke entered parliament via 3 direct constituency wins.
Party Standings — 2025 Results vs. 2021
| Party | Ideology | BTW 2025 | BTW 2021 | Change | Seats (approx.) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDU/CSU | Centre-right / Conservative | 28.5% | 24.1% | +4.4pp | ~208 | Coalition |
| AfD | Right-wing populist / Nationalist | 20.8% | 10.3% | +10.5pp | ~152 | Opposition |
| SPD | Centre-left / Social Democrats | 16.4% | 25.7% | −9.3pp | ~120 | Coalition |
| Greens | Green / Progressive | 11.6% | 14.8% | −3.2pp | ~85 | Opposition |
| Die Linke | Democratic socialist / Left | 8.8% | 4.9% | +3.9pp | ~64 | Opposition |
| BSW | Left-nationalist / Populist | 4.97% | n/a (new) | — | 0 (below threshold) | Not in Bundestag |
| FDP | Liberal / Free-market | 4.9% | 11.5% | −6.6pp | 0 (below threshold) | Not in Bundestag |
Seat counts are approximate and may vary due to overhang and levelling mandates. Total: 630 seats.
Key Political Figures
The Grand Coalition: CDU/CSU + SPD
Coalition Agreements
- Raising defense spending to 2% of GDP (NATO commitment)
- Stricter border controls and faster deportations
- Reducing bureaucracy and corporate tax burden
- Investment in rail, digital infrastructure and housing
- Support for Ukraine (military and humanitarian aid)
- Pension security reform to stabilize the system
Points of Friction
- Minimum wage increases (SPD push vs. CDU/CSU caution)
- Climate targets and energy transition speed
- Social spending cuts vs. SPD voter base expectations
- Citizenship reform reversals
- Extent of nuclear energy debate re-opening
- Coalition credit headroom under the debt brake
Current Issues — German Public Opinion (2025–2026)
| Issue | Position | Support | Oppose | Trend | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense spending (2%+ GDP) | Increase military budget to meet NATO target | 61% | 28% | Rising | Forsa, Q1 2026 |
| Immigration controls | Support stricter border/deportation policies | 67% | 23% | Rising | Infratest, 2025 |
| Housing affordability | Government should do more to tackle rents | 74% | 15% | Stable | YouGov DE, 2025 |
| Energy prices | Dissatisfied with energy cost relief measures | 58% | 31% | Stable | INSA, 2025 |
| Ukraine military aid | Support continued German weapons deliveries | 55% | 38% | Stable | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 2026 |
| Economic situation | Rate German economy as “bad” or “very bad” | 63% | 25% | Worsening | Forsa, Q1 2026 |
Figures represent approximate polling averages. Exact numbers vary by pollster and question wording.
Chancellor Merz: Approval Rating Trend
Friedrich Merz’s approval rating has remained relatively stable since taking office in February 2025. As of early 2026, polling averages from Forsa and Infratest dimap place his approval at approximately 45%, with disapproval around 42%. This represents a modest “chancellorship bonus” compared to his pre-election favorability figures.
| Period | Approve | Disapprove | Undecided | Pollster |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olaf Scholz — final months (Dec 2024) | 22% | 72% | 6% | Forsa |
| Merz — Feb 2025 (took office) | 47% | 38% | 15% | Forsa |
| Merz — May 2025 | 46% | 40% | 14% | Infratest dimap |
| Merz — Sep 2025 | 44% | 42% | 14% | INSA |
| Merz — Jan 2026 | 45% | 42% | 13% | Forsa |
Merz’s ratings are strongest among CDU/CSU voters (>80% approval) and weakest among Greens voters (~15%). Key drivers of dissatisfaction include economic concerns, housing costs, and frustration that the coalition has not moved faster on climate policy.
Germany in Context: Comparing Political Trends
| Trend | Germany | EU Average | United States |
|---|---|---|---|
| Far-right party support | AfD ~22% (opposition) | ~20–25% EU-wide | MAGA wing dominates GOP (~35% of electorate) |
| Immigration as top issue | #1 or #2 issue since 2023 | #1 issue in most member states | Consistently top issue since 2022 |
| Incumbent government approval | ~45% (Merz, GroKo) | ~40% average across EU27 | ~44% (Trump, Jan 2026) |
| Defense spending sentiment | Majority favor 2%+ NATO target | Growing support post-Ukraine invasion | Majority want allies to spend more |
| Coalition government | Grand Coalition (2 parties) | Multi-party norms across EU | Two-party system, no coalitions |
German Public Opinion on Immigration 2025–2026
Polling averages from Infratest dimap, Forsa, INSA, YouGov DE- 67% of Germans support stricter immigration controls and border enforcement (Infratest dimap, 2025)
- 62% say Germany has accepted too many refugees in recent years (INSA, 2025) — up from 44% in 2021
- Immigration ranked as the #1 political concern in every Forsa poll from 2023 to early 2026
- Among AfD voters, 91% name immigration as their primary reason for supporting the party
- Only 29% oppose deportation of rejected asylum seekers — a record low, down from 52% in 2019
| Question | Agree | Disagree | Trend | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Support stricter border controls | 67% | 23% | Rising | Infratest, 2025 |
| “Germany accepted too many refugees” | 62% | 29% | Rising (+18pp since 2021) | INSA, 2025 |
| Support deportation of rejected asylum seekers | 71% | 21% | Rising | YouGov DE, 2025 |
| Merz immigration policies: support | 58% | 31% | Stable | Forsa, Q1 2026 |
| Immigration as “most important issue” | 41% | — | Peaked 2025 | Forsa tracking, 2026 |
| Support for humanitarian asylum system | 54% | 38% | Declining | Bertelsmann, 2025 |
German public opinion on immigration has shifted significantly rightward since 2021. The rise of irregular migration to Germany — with over 350,000 asylum applications in 2023 alone — and high-profile violent incidents involving asylum seekers drove immigration to the top of the political agenda. The AfD’s surge from 10.3% in 2021 to 20.8% in February 2025 is closely correlated with this shift in public concern.
Chancellor Merz has responded with a notably harder line than any CDU leader since Helmut Kohl. His government’s “border control offensive” in early 2025, including temporary controls at all German land borders and accelerated deportation agreements with transit countries, enjoys majority support (58%). However, critics from the SPD coalition partner argue these measures test the limits of EU free movement rules and international asylum law.
The data reveals a persistent paradox: while broad majorities support tighter controls, roughly half of Germans (54% in Bertelsmann polling) also say they support a humanitarian asylum system in principle. The political debate is therefore less about whether to have an asylum system and more about its size, speed, and selectivity. See also: US immigration polling and the 2026 midterm impact.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the Chancellor of Germany in 2026?
Friedrich Merz (CDU) has been Chancellor of Germany since February 2025. He leads a Grand Coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. Merz succeeded Olaf Scholz, whose three-party “traffic light” coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP collapsed in late 2024 due to budget disputes.
What were the 2025 Bundestag election results?
CDU/CSU: 28.5%, AfD: 20.8%, SPD: 16.4%, Greens: 11.6%, Die Linke: 8.8% (entered via direct mandates), BSW: 4.97%, FDP: 4.9%. Both FDP and BSW fell below the 5% threshold and received no seats via party lists. Die Linke overcame the threshold by winning three direct constituencies.
Is the AfD in government in Germany?
No. Despite finishing second in the 2025 election with 20.8% of the vote, all major parties maintain a formal “firewall” (Brandmauer) against governing with or receiving votes from the AfD. The party serves as the largest opposition force under leader Alice Weidel.
When is the next German federal election?
The next scheduled Bundestag election is in 2029. The current Grand Coalition was formed after the February 2025 snap election (triggered by the collapse of the Scholz government in late 2024). Barring another coalition collapse, the next regular election is due in autumn 2029.
Explore Related Polling
European Union Hub
EU Parliament composition, all 27 member states, political groups and the road to the 2029 elections.
France
Macron, Marine Le Pen’s legal troubles, the hung parliament and the 2027 presidential race.
Poland
Tusk government, PiS opposition and Poland’s role on NATO’s eastern flank.
Hungary
Orban’s government, EU tensions and the 2026 elections outlook.
Trump Approval Rating
Live polling average for President Trump’s second term — updated daily.
Explainers
How the German coalition system works, the 5% threshold, and mixed-member proportional representation explained.
Full German polling data on Bundestagwahlumfrage.de
Interactive charts, all 16 German states, coalition calculators, 630 MP profiles and 450+ explainer articles — in German.
Visit Bundestagwahlumfrage.de →