US Presidential Elections

Note: 2000 — Gore won popular vote (48.4% vs. 47.9%); Bush won Electoral College. 2016 — Clinton won popular vote (48.2% vs. 46.1%). 1992 — Ross Perot (Independent) received 18.9% popular vote, 0 EV. 1988 — Last Republican win in California, Vermont, Illinois. 1984 — Reagan’s 525 EV is the all-time record; Mondale won only Minnesota + DC. 1980 — John Anderson (Independent) received 6.6% popular vote, 0 EV. 1976 — Ford never won a national election (appointed VP, inherited presidency). 1972 — Nixon resigned August 1974; McGovern won only Massachusetts + DC. 1968 — George Wallace (American Independent) received 13.5% popular vote, 46 EV — last third party to win electoral votes. 1964 — Goldwater won only 5 Deep South states + Arizona; beginning of Southern realignment. 1960 — Harry Byrd received 15 unpledged EV from Southern Democrats; Kennedy’s 0.17% popular vote margin is the smallest of the 20th century. 1956 — Eisenhower won 457 EV; 1 Mississippi elector voted for a local judge (faithless elector). 1952 — Eisenhower’s first of two landslides; first Republican president since Hoover (1929). 1948 — Strom Thurmond (States’ Rights / Dixiecrat) won 39 EV; Henry Wallace (Progressive) received 2.4%, 0 EV; “Dewey Defeats Truman” the most famous wrong headline in US political history. 1944 — FDR’s fourth term; died 82 days after inauguration; Harry Truman became president. 1940 — FDR’s unprecedented third term; war in Europe looming; led directly to 22nd Amendment. 1936 — FDR’s 523 EV is the largest in any contested modern election; Literary Digest poll predicted Landon win and folded within 2 years. 1932 — Great Depression landslide; ended 12 years of Republican White House control; began New Deal era. 1928 — Hoover won 444 EV in prosperity era peak; stock market crashed 11 months into his presidency. 1924 — La Follette (Progressive) won 13 EV and 16.6%; longest Democratic convention in history (103 ballots). 1920 — First election with women’s suffrage; FDR was Cox’s VP; Harding won by 26 points. 1916 — Wilson won by California’s margin of ~3,800 votes; “He kept us out of war” — US entered WWI 5 months later. 1912 — TR’s Bull Moose split gave Wilson 435 EV with only 41.8%; Taft won only 8 EV — worst incumbent finish in history.

Midterm elections — held two years into each presidential term — are the primary check on presidential power between elections. The president's party has lost House seats in 37 of the last 40 midterms. Below: every midterm since 2002, the key driver, and what each cycle means for 2026.

2026 Forecast

2026 Midterms: Democratic Wave?

Trump 43%, generic D+6, consumer confidence 57. Models project D+20–35 House seats and Democratic majority.

Full forecast →

2018 Results

2018: The Healthcare Wave

D+41 House seats. Suburban revolt, ACA protection messaging, record 49.3% midterm turnout.

Full results →

2010 Results

2010: The Tea Party Wave

R+63 House seats — largest gain since 1938. ACA backlash, 9.8% unemployment, Tea Party energy.

Full results →