Key Swing State Results
| State | Trump % | Harris % | Winner | Margin | Shift from 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 51.8% | 47.3% | Trump | +4.5pp | +2.9R |
| GeorgiaFlipped | 50.7% | 48.5% | Trump | +2.2pp | +0.2R |
| MichiganFlipped | 49.7% | 48.3% | Trump | +1.4pp | +3.6R |
| WisconsinFlipped | 49.6% | 48.8% | Trump | +0.8pp | +2.1R |
| ArizonaFlipped | 52.2% | 46.4% | Trump | +5.8pp | +2.8R |
| NevadaFlipped | 50.3% | 47.2% | Trump | +3.1pp | +4.5R |
| North Carolina | 51.1% | 47.6% | Trump | +3.5pp | held R |
Shift = change in Republican margin vs. 2020 result. Positive = moved toward Trump.
What Decided 2024
Inflation and the Economy
Cumulative inflation of roughly 20% since 2021 was the dominant issue. Voters consistently ranked the economy above all other concerns, and the incumbent party paid the price. Even as headline inflation fell in 2024, consumer prices remained well above pre-pandemic levels — a daily reminder for working-class households.
Biden's Late Withdrawal
Biden announced he would not seek re-election on July 21, 2024, less than four months before the election. Harris entered the race without a primary contest, with limited time to define herself as a distinct candidate from the incumbent administration, whose approval ratings had been underwater for much of his term.
Latino Voter Shift
Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters, particularly Latino men in states like Nevada, Arizona and along the Texas border. Exit polls showed Trump winning roughly 45% of Latino men nationally, a major shift from 2020. Economic concerns and cultural factors drove this realignment.
Harris's Positioning Challenges
As sitting Vice President, Harris could neither fully defend the Biden record — which was unpopular on the economy — nor distance herself from it. Her attempt to occupy the political center struggled to cut through in an environment polarized around Biden's legacy and Trump's return.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2024 US presidential election?
Donald Trump won with 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris's 226. Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, for his second non-consecutive term, making him the 47th President. He also won the popular vote 49.8% to 48.4% — the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.
Which states did Trump flip in 2024?
Trump flipped five states that Biden had won in 2020: Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. Pennsylvania, which Biden won in 2020, also went to Trump in 2024 by a margin of 4.5 points. Harris held no states that Trump had won in 2020.
How did Kamala Harris become the Democratic candidate in 2024?
President Biden announced on July 21, 2024 that he was withdrawing from the race and endorsing Harris, his Vice President. Harris secured the nomination through a virtual roll call vote of Democratic delegates without a contested primary, becoming the first woman and first person of South Asian descent to be a major party presidential nominee.
2024 Presidential Election - Video Analysis
CBS News: New poll shows low Trump approval rating