2026 Midterm Elections
The first midterm of Trump's second term. All 435 House seats, 34 Senate seats and 36 governorships on the ballot. Democrats need modest gains to flip the House. Republicans are defending their Senate advantage on a favorable map.
What's at Stake
Senate — 34 Seats Up
Of the 34 seats on the ballot, Democrats and independents caucusing with them defend 23 — including several in states Trump carried in 2024. Republicans defend just 11. Democrats would need to hold their seats and flip Republican-held ones to retake the majority, a map that strongly favors the GOP. Republicans, meanwhile, see chances to push toward a 56- or 57-seat supermajority. Full Senate guide →
House — All 435 Seats
Republicans hold 220 seats against a 218-seat majority threshold — a margin of just 2. Democrats need a net gain of only 5 seats to flip the Speaker's gavel. Historical patterns are strongly in their favor: the president's party loses an average of 27 House seats in midterms. Roughly 30 suburban districts are rated competitive. Full House guide →
Governors — 36 Races
36 governor races across the country, including large battlegrounds in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia. Governors control state election administration, redistricting infrastructure and federal policy implementation. In a year with high stakes, competitive governor races will receive outsized national attention. Full governors guide →
Most Competitive Senate Races
Ratings as of April 2026. See full Senate race tracker →
Top House Battleground Districts
Ratings as of April 2026. See full House race tracker →
Generic Ballot Trend
The generic ballot asks voters which party they prefer in their congressional district. Democrats currently lead by approximately 5.4 points — a margin historically associated with significant House seat gains for the opposition party.
Historical Context
The midterm pattern: The president's party loses an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections. This pattern has held in 37 of the past 40 midterm cycles — a structural phenomenon driven by differential turnout, voter dissatisfaction with the party in power and the natural desire for a check on executive authority. For Republicans holding a 2-seat House majority, this historical average would represent a catastrophic loss.
Approval rating as predictor: Presidents with approval ratings below 45% heading into midterms historically see their party lose 35 or more House seats. Trump's current 38.8% approval is well below that threshold. The last president to maintain approval above 50% heading into midterms was George W. Bush in 2002 — in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks — and his party gained seats that cycle, the rare exception.
Generic ballot accuracy: A generic ballot lead of 5+ points for either party typically translates to a meaningful seat gain, though the geographic distribution of votes and district-level gerrymandering can dampen the seat total relative to the vote share. Democrats' current D+5.4 advantage, if sustained to Election Day, would historically project to a net gain of 15–30 House seats. Read more: Understanding midterm election patterns →
Key Dates — 2026 Midterms
Explore the 2026 Races
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the 2026 midterm elections?
The 2026 midterm elections are on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 — exactly two years into Trump's second term. All 435 House seats, 34 Senate seats and 36 governorships will be contested.
What seats are up in 2026?
All 435 House seats are up every two years. In the Senate, 34 seats are on the 2026 ballot — of those, 23 are currently held by Democrats or independents caucusing with them, and 11 by Republicans. This map is considered favorable for Republicans.
Can Democrats win back the House in 2026?
Democrats need a net gain of only 5 seats — from 215 to 218 — to retake the House majority. With the Generic Ballot showing a D+5.4 advantage and Trump's approval at 38.8%, structural conditions favor Democratic gains. Most forecasters rate the House as competitive, with a meaningful chance of a Democratic flip.
