Key Swing States — Toss-ups 2024/2026
Why swing states matter →Toss-up · Arizona
Arizona (AZ)
11 electoral votes
T 52.2%
H 46.5%
Toss-up · Georgia
Georgia (GA)
16 electoral votes
T 50.7%
H 48.5%
Toss-up · Michigan
Michigan (MI)
15 electoral votes
T 49.7%
H 48.3%
Toss-up · Nevada
Nevada (NV)
6 electoral votes
T 50.6%
H 47.6%
Toss-up · North Carolina
North Carolina (NC)
16 electoral votes
T 51%
H 47.7%
Toss-up · Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania (PA)
19 electoral votes
T 51.8%
H 47.3%
Toss-up · Wisconsin
Wisconsin (WI)
10 electoral votes
T 49.9%
H 48.7%
The 2024 Swing States: By the Numbers
| State | Electoral Votes | Trump 2024 | Harris 2024 | Margin | 2026 Senate Race? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 11 | 52.2% | 46.5% | R+5.7 | No (Ruben Gallego, D, up 2028) |
| Georgia | 16 | 50.7% | 48.5% | R+2.2 | Yes — Jon Ossoff (D) up 2026, very competitive |
| Michigan | 15 | 49.7% | 48.3% | R+1.4 | No open Senate seat |
| Nevada | 6 | 50.6% | 47.6% | R+3.0 | Yes — Catherine Cortez Masto (D) up 2028; House races competitive 2026 |
| North Carolina | 16 | 51.0% | 47.7% | R+3.3 | No (Thom Tillis, R, up 2026 — but not top battleground) |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | 51.8% | 47.3% | R+4.5 | Yes — open seat (Bob Casey lost 2024), top 2026 battleground |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 49.9% | 48.7% | R+1.2 | No (Tammy Baldwin, D, just won 2024) |
Source: AP / Decision Desk HQ 2024 presidential results. Senate race status as of 2026 cycle.
All 50 States A–Z
AL · 9 EV
Alabama
Safe R
AK · 3 EV
Alaska
Lean R
AZ · 11 EV
Arizona
Toss-up
AR · 6 EV
Arkansas
Safe R
CA · 54 EV
California
Safe D
CO · 10 EV
Colorado
Lean D
CT · 7 EV
Connecticut
Safe D
DE · 3 EV
Delaware
Safe D
FL · 30 EV
Florida
Lean R
GA · 16 EV
Georgia
Toss-up
HI · 4 EV
Hawaii
Safe D
ID · 4 EV
Idaho
Safe R
IL · 19 EV
Illinois
Safe D
IN · 11 EV
Indiana
Safe R
IA · 6 EV
Iowa
Lean R
KS · 6 EV
Kansas
Safe R
KY · 8 EV
Kentucky
Safe R
LA · 8 EV
Louisiana
Safe R
ME · 4 EV
Maine
Lean D
MD · 10 EV
Maryland
Safe D
MA · 11 EV
Massachusetts
Safe D
MI · 15 EV
Michigan
Toss-up
MN · 10 EV
Minnesota
Lean D
MS · 6 EV
Mississippi
Safe R
MO · 10 EV
Missouri
Safe R
MT · 4 EV
Montana
Safe R
NE · 5 EV
Nebraska
Safe R
NV · 6 EV
Nevada
Toss-up
NH · 4 EV
New Hampshire
Lean D
NJ · 14 EV
New Jersey
Lean D
NM · 5 EV
New Mexico
Lean D
NY · 28 EV
New York
Safe D
NC · 16 EV
North Carolina
Toss-up
ND · 3 EV
North Dakota
Safe R
OH · 17 EV
Ohio
Lean R
OK · 7 EV
Oklahoma
Safe R
OR · 8 EV
Oregon
Lean D
PA · 19 EV
Pennsylvania
Toss-up
RI · 4 EV
Rhode Island
Safe D
SC · 9 EV
South Carolina
Safe R
SD · 3 EV
South Dakota
Safe R
TN · 11 EV
Tennessee
Safe R
TX · 40 EV
Texas
Lean R
UT · 6 EV
Utah
Safe R
VT · 3 EV
Vermont
Safe D
VA · 13 EV
Virginia
Lean D
WA · 12 EV
Washington
Safe D
WV · 4 EV
West Virginia
Safe R
WI · 10 EV
Wisconsin
Toss-up
WY · 3 EV
Wyoming
Safe R
Polls & Data
Trump Approval Rating — 38.1% Approve, 59.2% Disapprove →
Generic Ballot Tracker — Democrats +5.7 as of May 2026 →
2026 Swing States — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania in Play →
Senate 2026 Midterms — 34 Seats, Democrats Defending 23 →
How the Electoral College Works — 270 Votes to Win →
Why Swing States Decide Every Election — Explainer →