Arizona

Source: Official 2024 General Election results — Trump +5.7. Margin: 5.7 pts.

Arizona is one of the most politically paradoxical states in America. It voted for Donald Trump in 2024 by 5.7 points — yet simultaneously sent two Democratic senators to Washington and has a Democratic governor. That combination is rare, and it reflects a political environment shaped by unusually high candidate-quality sensitivity.

Maricopa County is everything. With 4.5 million people in the Phoenix metropolitan area — representing roughly 60% of the state's population — Maricopa is the decisive battleground. It voted for Biden in 2020 (by a narrow margin) after voting for Trump in 2016. In 2024 it swung back to Trump. The suburb-by-suburb dynamics of Maricopa — Scottsdale, Chandler, Gilbert, Tempe, Mesa — tell the story of Arizona politics better than any statewide figure.

The Latino factor. Arizona has a large and politically significant Hispanic population — approximately 32% of the state and roughly 22% of the electorate. In 2020, Biden won Arizona Latinos approximately 61-36. In 2024, that advantage compressed significantly, with Trump performing roughly 10 points better among Latino men than in 2020. This is the most important demographic trend in Arizona politics, and it explains how Trump won the state while Ruben Gallego simultaneously won his Senate race.

Immigration as a local issue. Arizona shares 370 miles of border with Mexico, making immigration policy far more than an abstract national debate. The state's voters — including its Latino voters — have consistently distinguished between support for orderly legal immigration and frustration with border management failures. See our immigration issue page for the full polling breakdown.