- IA-3 is rated Toss-up — one of the most competitive House races of the 2026 cycle.
- Republican Rep. Zach Nunn faces a competitive Democratic challenge in a district where the party and national environment create significant headwinds.
- Suburban voter realignment since 2018 has made Iowa's competitive congressional districts bellwethers for how college-educated voters respond to the national political environment.
- With Republicans holding a narrow House majority, every competitive district race contributes to whether Republicans expand their margin or Democrats recapture the chamber in 2026.
IA-3 is Lean R to Toss-up. Nunn won the seat in 2022 by only 2 points over then-incumbent Cindy Axne, and midterm cycles typically favor the opposition party. Trump's presidential-level strength in the district provides a floor, but Nunn must defend his record on agriculture and the economy in farm country facing tariff headwinds. Full House overview →
Race Overview
The Candidates
Zach Nunn
Active-duty Air Force Reserve intelligence officer and former Iowa state senator who unseated two-term Democrat Cindy Axne in 2022. Nunn positions himself as a pragmatic conservative with a focus on national security and agricultural issues. His military background plays well in rural Iowa but his narrow 2022 win signals a district in play.
Weaknesses: Very narrow 2022 margin; agriculture tariff backlash; midterm headwinds.
TBD Democrat
Democrats held this seat with Cindy Axne for two terms before losing it narrowly. A candidate with similar suburban appeal — ideally from the Des Moines metro or Ames area — who can articulate a message on farm economics and healthcare could replicate Axne's prior coalition. DCCC is expected to target this seat.
Challenges: Iowa trending R; Trump's strong district performance creates headwinds.
Why IA-3 Is Competitive
Agriculture & Tariffs
IA-3 is corn and soybean country. China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods — triggered by Trump trade policy — have historically cut deeply into Iowa farm income. Farmers who supported Trump on cultural issues can face real economic pressure when trade wars escalate, creating potential for ticket-splitting or lower Republican enthusiasm.
Suburban Des Moines Growth
West Des Moines suburbs have grown rapidly and contain a significant educated-professional voter bloc. These voters — especially college-educated women — have shifted toward Democrats in recent cycles. In 2022, Cindy Axne was competitive in these suburbs even while losing ground in rural precincts, demonstrating the district's complex internal geography.
Midterm Dynamics
Midterm elections typically see the president's party lose seats. In 2026, with Republicans controlling the White House, Democrats have historical wind at their backs. Nunn won in 2022, a relatively neutral midterm for Republicans, by just 2 points — in a more hostile environment for the GOP, the seat becomes a prime pickup target.
