- Both NH seats rated Lean D: NH-1 (Pappas, D+1) and NH-2 (Goodlander/open, D+3) — New Hampshire has backed Democrats in both 2020 and 2024 presidential races, reflecting its educated suburban and college-town character
- NH-1: Pappas beat Karoline Leavitt (now Trump's Press Secretary) by just 1.7pts in 2022; requires D+6 national environment to hold comfortably; a neutral national environment pushes it to Toss-up
- NH-2 open seat (Kuster retired after 12 years): Goodlander needs to hold D+3 territory without the incumbency cushion; open seats in D+3 districts remain Lean D but not safe in neutral national environments
- NH is the model swing state: moderately D at presidential level (Harris +2.4 in 2024) but with a strong independent tradition and Republican governor (Ayotte elected 2024) showing persistent cross-ticket voting
NH-1: Pappas in a Marginal Seat
Chris Pappas has held NH-1, covering Manchester, Nashua, and the southeastern corner of New Hampshire, since 2019. The district's D+1 partisan voting index reflects its swing-state character: Manchester is a post-industrial city that has trended more competitive, while Nashua's suburbs have shifted slightly toward Democrats. Pappas has survived close races by building a moderate, independent brand that appeals to the Granite State's tradition of crossing party lines.
In 2022, he defeated Karoline Leavitt (later named Trump's Press Secretary) by 1.7 points. His 2026 race depends heavily on the national environment. A D+4 or better generic ballot would make him a comfortable Lean D; a neutral or R-leaning environment could push NH-1 to Toss-up.
NH-2: Goodlander in an Open-ish Seat
Annie Kuster, who held NH-2 for 12 years, announced her retirement in late 2024. Maggie Goodlander won the Democratic primary and the 2024 general in the open seat race. For 2026, Goodlander technically has the advantages of incumbency in a D+3 district, but as a first-term member without a deeply entrenched profile, she remains a target. NH-2 covers Concord, Keene, and the upper Connecticut River Valley — a mix of college towns, progressive communities, and rural areas.
The national forecasters rate NH-2 as Lean D. Republicans would need a credible challenger from the Concord-area business community or a former officeholder to make the race competitive. The NRCC has flagged NH-2 as a lower-priority opportunity compared to NH-1.
New Hampshire's Swing-State Context
New Hampshire is one of only a handful of states that can genuinely go either way in presidential elections. It has backed Democrats in every presidential election since 2000 except 2000 itself. Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte, elected in 2024, represents the moderate New England Republican brand. Her approval ratings give Republicans hope for the House races, but the national anti-MAGA environment in 2026 may offset any coattail effect.
National generic ballot D+4 or better. Incumbent protection for Pappas. College-educated suburban growth in Nashua and Concord corridors.
Governor Ayotte's moderate GOP brand. Live Free or Die independent voter streak. Manchester working-class precincts that shifted R in 2020.
Fentanyl and opioid crisis remain central to NH politics. Healthcare access in rural NH. Social Security cuts polling badly with NH's older independent voters.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NH-1 safe for Chris Pappas?
Not safe, but Lean D. Pappas has a D+1 PVI district and a track record of narrow wins. In a favorable national environment his incumbency advantage holds. A strong Republican challenger could make it Toss-up.
What makes NH-2 competitive after Kuster's retirement?
Goodlander won in 2024 as a first-termer. NH-2's D+3 PVI is competitive, not safe. Open-seat dynamics and Republican investment could make it a race. But the D+3 lean and national environment keep it in Lean D territory for now.
Could Republicans flip both New Hampshire House seats?
Unlikely without a national Republican wave. NH-1 is more vulnerable; NH-2 would require exceptional recruitment and a neutral or R-leaning national environment. Both flipping simultaneously would require conditions not currently forecast.
