Historical Data
Midterm Election History: The Party in Power Always Loses
Complete historical data on midterm seat losses 1934–2022
28
Avg House Seats Lost by President’s Party
3
Times President’s Party Gained Seats (Since 1934)
22 straight
Midterms with losses before 1998
-63
Worst Loss (2010, Obama/Democrats)
House Seat Changes in Midterm Elections (1982–2022)
| Year | President | Approval | House Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Biden (D) | 44% | R+9 |
| 2018 | Trump (R) | 42% | D+41 |
| 2014 | Obama (D) | 44% | R+13 |
| 2010 | Obama (D) | 45% | R+63 |
| 2006 | Bush (R) | 38% | D+31 |
| 2002 | Bush (R) | 63% | R+8 (9/11 effect) |
| 1998 | Clinton (D) | 66% | D+5 (3rd exception) |
| 1994 | Clinton (D) | 46% | R+54 |
| 1990 | Bush Sr. (R) | 57% | D+9 |
| 1986 | Reagan (R) | 63% | D+5 |
| 1982 | Reagan (R) | 43% | D+26 |
The Three Exceptions
1934 (FDR +9 House seats): The Great Depression context made Democrats the party of economic salvation. FDR’s first midterm was a unique approval referendum on the New Deal.
1998 (Clinton +5 House seats): Republicans’ pursuit of Clinton’s impeachment for the Lewinsky affair backfired. The economy was booming, Clinton’s approval was 66%, and voters punished Republicans for the impeachment overreach.
2002 (Bush +8 House seats): 14 months after September 11, Bush had a 63% approval rating. National security dominated, and Democrats’ opposition was muted by post-9/11 unity.