- Trump’s 39.2% approval / 58.0% disapproval in June 2026 is his lowest net rating of the second term at -18.8 points
- Republican approval remains at 87% — the drag comes from Independents (32% approve) and soft Republicans in suburban districts
- Economic disapproval is the leading driver: 54% disapprove of Trump’s economic management as tariff costs reach consumers
- Healthcare disapproval has jumped 8 points since the Big Beautiful Bill passed the Senate — Medicaid cuts are a tangible kitchen-table issue
- Historical context: George W. Bush reached 38% in June 2006 ahead of Democrats winning 31 House seats in November
The Independent Voter Problem
The 32% approval among self-identified Independents is the figure most alarming for Republicans heading into 2026. Independents decide competitive House and Senate races — and a president sitting below 35% approval with Independents historically correlates with significant midterm seat losses. The generic ballot currently shows Democrats leading by 6.2 points, a gap that reflects Independent lean rather than base enthusiasm.
Issue-by-Issue Breakdown
Immigration remains Trump’s strongest issue at 43% approval. Economy: 41% approve, 54% disapprove. Healthcare: 31% approve, 62% disapprove (post-Big Beautiful Bill). Foreign policy: 38% approve, 56% disapprove. The immigration advantage has narrowed from 52% approval in early 2025 as enforcement disruptions affected agricultural and hospitality sectors.
Second-Term Historical Comparison
At 39.2% in month 18 of a second term, Trump is tracking below Reagan (63% in Jun 1986), Clinton (57% in Jun 1998), and Obama (45% in Jun 2014) — and near George W. Bush’s 38% in June 2006. Bush lost 31 House seats that November. Our wave indicator analysis covers the full electoral picture.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Trump’s approval rating in June 2026?
39.2% approve, 58.0% disapprove in June 2026 polling averages. This is his lowest net approval of the second term at -18.8 points, driven by economic disapproval and backlash to the Big Beautiful Bill’s Medicaid provisions.
How does this compare to his first term?
In his first term, Trump’s approval ranged from 34% to 49%, averaging around 41%. His second term started higher at 47% (inauguration) but has declined more steeply, now at 39.2%.
What issues drive Trump’s disapproval in 2026?
Economic management (54% disapprove), healthcare policy after the Big Beautiful Bill (62% disapprove), and foreign policy uncertainty (56% disapprove) are the three primary drivers. Immigration remains his best issue at 43% approval.
