- A Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll released September 23, 2026 put Trump approval at 33%, described as a new low for his second term, with 63% disapproving
- An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll around the same time found a less severe but still weak 39% approve, 53% disapprove
- Averaged across major pollsters, approval is around 37.3% and disapproval around 60.2%, a net of roughly −23
- The drop tracks closely with the early-September government funding fight, which Congress resolved on September 1 with a short-term bill through December 11 — but not before both parties’ standing took a hit
- Sub-40% approval heading into a midterm year has historically preceded double-digit House seat losses for the president’s party
Why the Range Between Polls Is So Wide
A six-point spread between the lowest (33%) and highest (39%) approval readings in the same week is not unusual for tracking polls with different methodologies, sample frames, and likely-voter screens. What matters more than any single number is that every major public poll released in late September showed Trump underwater by at least 14 points, and most showed a gap of 20 points or more — a consistent signal even if the exact level varies. Our own approval tracker blends these sources into a single daily-updated average rather than anchoring on whichever poll made headlines that day.
The Funding Fight’s Fingerprints
Congress avoided a shutdown on September 1, 2026 by passing a short-term funding bill through December 11 on a lopsided 370-48 vote. But the weeks of brinkmanship leading up to that vote left a mark: approval numbers for both the White House and Congress softened through September, and the softening was sharpest among independents, who tend to punish whoever looks responsible for Washington dysfunction regardless of which party ultimately caves. Because the same funding deadline returns in December, right before the new year and well within range of the November 3 midterms, this dynamic is likely to resurface rather than fade.
What Sub-40% Has Meant Before
George W. Bush was near 38% approval in October 2006 before Republicans lost 30 House seats and the majority that November. Not every low-approval midterm has followed the same script — other factors like candidate quality and turnout always matter — but a president under 40% heading into the final weeks of a midterm cycle has, more often than not, coincided with a bad night for their party. Combined with a generic ballot that has moved to roughly D+8 in the same period, September 2026’s numbers point in a consistent direction rather than contradicting each other.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Trump's approval rating in September 2026?
Approval ratings in late September 2026 range from 33% in a Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, described as a new low, to 39% in an NPR/PBS News/Marist survey. Averaged across major pollsters, approval sits around 37%, with disapproval near 60%.
Why did Trump's approval rating drop in September 2026?
The decline followed a drawn-out government funding fight that nearly produced a shutdown before Congress passed a short-term bill on September 1, 2026 extending funding through December 11. Independents in particular moved away from approval during the standoff, a pattern consistent with previous funding fights and shutdowns.
How does a 33 to 39 percent approval rating compare historically?
An approval rating in the mid-30s to high-30s in the run-up to a midterm election has historically preceded large House seat losses for the president's party. George W. Bush was near 38% in October 2006 before Republicans lost 30 House seats and the majority; Barack Obama was near 45% in 2010 before a 63-seat loss driven by other factors as well.
