- CBO projects -0.6% GDP reduction from the 2025 tariff regime (~$180 billion in annual lost output); Goldman Sachs and the Yale Budget Lab estimate household costs increase by $3,500-$3,800 per year on average
- Goldman Sachs projects a net loss of -400,000 jobs — primarily in retail, trade-exposed supply chains, and services; steel and aluminum manufacturing gains are too small to offset the broader service sector employment losses
- The Federal Reserve has flagged +2.3% additional inflation from tariff pass-through as a constraint preventing it from cutting interest rates — creating a simultaneous drag on both economic growth and monetary policy flexibility
- The White House CEA is the only institution projecting net positive economic outcomes; every independent forecaster — CBO, Goldman Sachs, Yale Budget Lab, JP Morgan — projects net negative impacts across GDP, employment, and household purchasing power
Economic Forecasts Comparison: Major Institutions
| Institution | GDP Impact | Jobs Impact | Household Cost | Inflation Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | -0.6% | -200K to -400K | ~$3,200 | +1.8% |
| Goldman Sachs | -0.5% to -0.8% | -400K | ~$3,500 | +2.0% |
| Yale Budget Lab | -0.5% | -300K | $3,800 | +2.3% |
| JP Morgan | -0.3% to -1.0% | -250K to -500K | ~$3,000 | +1.5-2.5% |
| White House CEA | +0.2% (long-term) | +500K (manufacturing) | Neutral (domestic substitution) | Temporary |
| Fed (Powell) | Uncertain / monitoring | Labor market resilient | N/A | +2.3% flagged as concern |
Sector-by-Sector Tariff Impact
The tariff burden is not uniformly distributed across the economy. Sectors with high import content or significant exposure to retaliatory tariffs face the largest headwinds. Agriculture — a reliably Republican-voting sector — faces particular pressure from Chinese retaliatory tariffs on soybeans, pork, and corn. Iowa soybean prices fell 15-20% during the 2018-2019 trade war and similar dynamics are emerging in 2025-2026. Manufacturers that depend on imported components (auto parts, semiconductors, chemicals) face input cost increases that compress margins and reduce competitiveness.
The sectors that benefit — steel, aluminum, some domestic appliance manufacturers — are more geographically concentrated and smaller in aggregate employment than the affected sectors. The political map of tariff impacts closely aligns with swing-state electoral geography: Pennsylvania steel workers gain, but Pennsylvania manufacturing supply chains and retail employment face pressure simultaneously. This tension is visible in Trump's economic approval numbers, which dropped sharply among non-college whites since tariff implementation.
Electronics (+10-25%), clothing (+8-15%), appliances (+12-18%), and automobiles (+$2,000-$4,000 per vehicle) are the largest cost drivers. These are not abstract statistics — they show up in monthly household budgets and drive the consumer confidence decline documented in polling.
China, Canada, the EU, and Mexico have all implemented retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. exports. Agricultural exports, Harley-Davidson motorcycles, bourbon, and industrial equipment face foreign barriers. U.S. export volumes in affected categories declined 8-22% in the first year of the 2025 tariff regime.
Trump's economic approval rating has dropped to 39% in the Quinnipiac April 2026 poll, down from 48% at inauguration. Seventy-two percent of independents say tariffs are hurting the economy. The tariff issue now ranks second only to prices/inflation as a driver of economic dissatisfaction.
