- US-EU relations under Trump's second term are the most strained since the founding of the postwar transatlantic alliance — culminating in April 2026 when Trump's attack on Pope Leo XIV shattered the last EU-MAGA bridge (Italy's Meloni), and every major EU government is now in adversarial relations with Washington.
- Trump imposed 10-25% tariffs on European goods — threatening EU auto, steel, aluminum, pharmaceutical, and agricultural exports worth hundreds of billions of euros annually.
- Trump has questioned the US commitment to Article 5 NATO mutual defense — forcing Europe to accelerate defense spending and discuss 'strategic autonomy' from American security guarantees.
- The EU has responded with counter-tariffs and diversification of trade partners — while trying to negotiate a resolution that addresses Trump's core demand of reducing the US trade deficit with Europe.
EU and Trump: How Europe Is Responding to Trump 2.0
Trump’s second term has fundamentally reshuffled EU–US relations. Tariffs, Ukraine, NATO and European defense autonomy — here is what European leaders are doing and what their citizens think.
Tariffs: Trade War Threat
On April 2, 2025 ("Liberation Day"), the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on EU goods — a baseline 10% on all imports, with sectoral tariffs targeting steel (25%), aluminum (25%) and automobiles (25%). The EU’s reaction was swift and unified. For full US polling on the tariffs, see Trade & Tariffs: What Americans Think.
The European Commission prepared retaliatory measures targeting approximately $28 billion in US goods — a carefully calibrated list designed to inflict political pain in Trump-supporting US states. Products targeted included Harley-Davidson motorcycles, Kentucky bourbon and Florida orange juice.
| EU Country | Oppose US Tariffs | Main Export at Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 71% | Automobiles (BMW, VW, Mercedes) |
| France | 68% | Wine, luxury goods, aerospace |
| Italy | 62% | Food products, industrial machinery |
| Netherlands | 66% | Chemicals, pharmaceuticals |
| Poland | 58% | Steel, manufactured goods |
| Hungary | 41% | Automotive parts (most Trump-friendly EU country) |
Ukraine: Europe Steps Up
Trump’s signals of reduced US commitment to Ukraine forced a fundamental strategic rethink in European capitals. Rather than waiting for Washington, EU governments accelerated their own defense commitments.
France — Nuclear Umbrella Proposal
President Macron raised the prospect of extending France’s nuclear deterrent to EU partners, a historic shift. He also proposed deploying European troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers. 54% of French support deeper EU military engagement.
Germany — Sondervermögen Defense Fund
Germany’s new government under Friedrich Merz approved a €100 billion+ special fund for military and security spending — a constitutional revision. 57% of Germans support increased defense spending (a historic high).
Poland — Largest Army Builder
Poland is building the largest army in continental Europe, targeting 4% of GDP for defense. As Ukraine’s direct neighbor, Polish public opinion strongly backs Western support: 74% support continued Ukraine aid.
Hungary — The Outlier
Orbán’s Hungary remains the sole EU member aligned with Trump’s framing on Ukraine. Hungary has blocked several EU aid packages. Only 31% of Hungarians support EU military aid to Ukraine.
NATO: Toward European Strategic Autonomy
Trump’s insistence that European NATO members “pay their share” has accelerated a debate that predates his presidency: should Europe build a defense capability independent of US leadership?
The EU’s ReArm Europe plan, unveiled in 2025, committed to mobilizing up to €800 billion for defense over four years. Multiple EU countries — Germany, Poland, Sweden, the Baltic states — announced defense budgets above 3% of GDP.
A key question: can EU defense replace US security guarantees? Most analysts say no in the short term — the US provides irreplaceable nuclear deterrence, intelligence sharing and logistical capacity. But the direction of travel has shifted permanently.
April 2026: The EU-Trump Alliance Theory Collapses
The theory that right-wing European governments (Meloni, Orbán) could serve as a bridge between the EU and Trump collapsed in April 2026 when Trump publicly attacked Pope Leo XIV — the first American pope — calling him "weak on crime." Italian Prime Minister Meloni, whose political brand rests in part on Catholic conservative identity, declared Trump's attack "unacceptable" and refused a US request to use the NATO base at Sigonella for Iran-related military operations. Trump responded by threatening to withdraw 12,000 US troops from Italy. Italian media — across the political spectrum — rallied behind Meloni.
The immediate consequence was a realignment: Meloni pivoted toward EU solidarity, joining a common front with German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, and UK Prime Minister Starmer. The Sigonella standoff revealed the structural limits of the EU-MAGA alignment theory: European conservative leaders can maintain warm bilateral relations with Trump in periods of calm, but when US demands directly threaten national sovereignty — or, in Italy's case, the Vatican — the relationship cannot hold.
Hungary's Orbán remains the one exception. He has not criticized Trump over the Pope Leo XIV episode and continues to block EU joint positions on Russia and Ukraine. The Meloni-Trump rupture, however, removed the last major EU government that credibly positioned itself as a Trump ally. As of May 2026, every major EU government is in adversarial or tense relations with the Trump administration.
Country-by-Country: Trump Relations (May 2026)
| Country | Leader | Trump Relations | Trump Trust (Public) | Key Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Merz (CDU) | Tense | 18% | Strong Ukraine support, EU defense push, resists tariffs |
| France | Macron (Renew) | Adversarial | 19% | Nuclear umbrella proposal, EU sovereignty push, bilateral outreach |
| Poland | Tusk (KO) | Mixed | 34% | Wants US troops to stay, supports Ukraine, pro-NATO spending |
| Hungary | Orbán (Fidesz) | Warm | 52% | Aligns with Trump on Ukraine, immigration; blocks EU unity |
| Italy | Meloni (FdI) | Broken | 29% | April 2026: Trump attacked Pope Leo XIV, Meloni refused US use of Sigonella, Trump threatened troop withdrawal; alliance collapsed |
| Denmark | Frederiksen (S) | Very Tense | 17% | Greenland threats have shocked Danish public; defense spending surge |
European Public Opinion on Trump: Full Polling Data
A Pew Research Center survey (Spring 2025) across 14 European countries found overwhelming distrust of Trump’s foreign policy judgment:
| Country | Trust Trump in World Affairs | Change vs. Biden Approval |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 18% | −59 pts |
| France | 19% | −57 pts |
| Sweden | 21% | −54 pts |
| Netherlands | 24% | −51 pts |
| Spain | 20% | −56 pts |
| Poland | 34% | −40 pts |
| Italy | 29% | −46 pts |
| Hungary | 52% | +5 pts (Fidesz base) |
| EU average | 22% | −55 pts |
Related Analysis
NATO & European Security
Defense spending, 2% target and Europe’s military buildup.
EU vs. USA Polls
Compare public opinion on climate, democracy and media trust.
EU Far-Right Wave
The rise of nationalist parties across Europe and their Trump connections.
Trade & Tariffs: US Public Opinion
67% of Americans oppose broad tariffs — the domestic polling behind the trade war.
Economy, Tariffs & 2026 Elections
How the trade war feeds into the 2026 midterm electoral calculus.
Trump Approval Rating
38.1% approve — the domestic approval context for Trump’s foreign policy.
Italy: Meloni & the Trump Collapse
April 2026: How Trump's attack on Pope Leo XIV ended the EU-MAGA bridge.
Germany: Merz & EU Defense
The Sondervermögen, NATO spending, and Merz's harder line against Trump.
