The Supreme Court Term: October to June, the Shadow Docket, and a 6-3 Conservative Court
The Supreme Court accepts roughly 1% of the cases it is asked to hear, issues its major opinions in June, and increasingly sh-text-light);font-size:1rem;max-width:640px;margin:0 0 8px;"> The Supreme Court accepts roughly 1% of the cases it is asked to hear, issues its major opinions in June, and increasingly shapes policy through emergency orders before cases are fully argued. Here is how the term works and what the 6-3 conservative supermajority means for 2026.
- The Supreme Court term runs from October through June — with most major decisions released in the final weeks of June.
- The 2025-26 term includes major cases on executive power, birthright citizenship, immigration enforcement, and social media regulation.
- The Court's 6-3 conservative majority (Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett) has reshaped American law since 2022 — reversing Roe v. Wade, limiting EPA authority, and expanding presidential immunity.
- Supreme Court decisions are immediately final — they can only be reversed by subsequent Supreme Court decisions or constitutional amendments.
The Annual Term Cycle
- October — Term opens. The first Monday in October is traditionally the start of the new term. The Court begins hearing oral arguments on cases granted cert from the prior term and new cases accepted over the summer.
- October-April — Oral arguments. The Court typically hears 2-hour oral argument sessions on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday in two-week stretches, followed by two-week recesses. Arguments are 30 minutes per side; justices interrupt with questions throughout.
- October-June — Conference sessions. On Fridays, the justices meet in private conference to discuss cases argued and vote on cert petitions. No clerks or staff are present. The most senior justice in the majority assigns opinion writing.
- January-June — Opinions issued. The Court releases opinions on argument days. Major, contested opinions are typically released in May and June, as justices work to finalize opinions and dissents.
- Late June — Term ends. The final day of the term sees the most anticipated opinions released. The Court recesses for summer, though the justices continue working on opinions, reviewing cert petitions, and handling emergency applications.
Current Court Composition (2026)
| Justice | Appointed By | Year | Ideological Lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Roberts (CJ) | George W. Bush | 2005 | Conservative (institutionalist) |
| Clarence Thomas | George H.W. Bush | 1991 | Conservative (originalist) |
| Samuel Alito | George W. Bush | 2006 | Conservative |
| Sonia Sotomayor | Obama | 2009 | Liberal |
| Elena Kagan | Obama | 2010 | Liberal |
| Neil Gorsuch | Trump | 2017 | Conservative (originalist) |
| Brett Kavanaugh | Trump | 2018 | Conservative (center-right) |
| Amy Coney Barrett | Trump | 2020 | Conservative |
| Ketanji Brown Jackson | Biden | 2022 | Liberal |
Why It Matters for 2026
Dozens of Trump executive orders from 2025 are working their way through the courts. The Supreme Court has already ruled on emergency applications related to birthright citizenship, DOGE access to federal data, and agency firings. The October 2025 term includes major cases on executive power scope, administrative law deference, and immigration enforcement that will define the legal boundaries of Trump's second term.
Justice Clarence Thomas (born 1948) and Justice Samuel Alito (born 1950) are the oldest conservative justices. If either were to step down or die during Trump's second term, he would appoint a replacement — potentially cementing a 6-3 or 7-2 conservative majority for decades. Justice Sonia Sotomayor (born 1954) has diabetes but has given no indication of retirement plans. Court composition is a live 2026 campaign issue, particularly for Democratic base mobilization.
The Trump administration has filed an unusually high volume of emergency applications to the Supreme Court, seeking to lift lower court injunctions blocking executive actions. The Court's willingness to grant or deny these stays on a fast timeline — without oral argument or full briefing — is effectively making major policy decisions on immigration, federal workforce, and executive power. The shadow docket has become the most consequential, least transparent part of the Court's work in 2025-2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Supreme Court decide which cases to hear?
The Court receives roughly 7,000-8,000 cert petitions annually and accepts about 60-80 (around 1%). Four justices must vote to take a case (rule of four). Priority factors include circuit splits (different appeals courts ruling differently on the same question), constitutional questions, and cases of national significance. Denial of cert carries no precedential weight and does not mean the lower court was correct.
What is the shadow docket and why is it controversial?
The shadow docket refers to emergency orders and procedural rulings issued outside the full merits process — without oral argument or full briefing. Critics argue these orders resolve major legal questions without transparency. During Trump's second term, the shadow docket has been used to rule on immigration, DOGE access, and agency actions, often within days of emergency applications. Justice Kagan and other liberals have written pointed dissents criticizing the shadow docket's expansion.
What does the 6-3 conservative majority mean in practice?
With six conservative justices, there is no single swing vote: even if Roberts joins the three liberals, the vote is 5-4 conservative. The majority has used this supermajority to overturn Roe v. Wade (2022), eliminate Chevron deference (2024), expand executive immunity, and move administrative law doctrine rightward. However, the six conservatives do not always agree — Thomas and Alito often push for broader rulings that Roberts and Kavanaugh decline to join.
