- 52% of Americans are open to an EV purchase in 2026; the $7,500 IRA consumer credit is the primary price bridge making EVs competitive with internal combustion vehicles for middle-income buyers — its potential repeal would widen the price gap and directly slow adoption
- Trump revoked Biden's EO 14037 and EPA tailpipe emissions rules that set the de facto 50% EV sales target for 2030; the policy goal is eliminated, but $393B+ in private manufacturing investment already committed creates significant path dependency
- 100%+ tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and battery components raise production costs for American manufacturers dependent on Chinese lithium carbonate, cobalt, and rare earth magnets — partially offsetting IRA credits and slowing the competitive cost gap closure between US and Chinese EVs
- EV battery factory delays in Georgia, Michigan, Tennessee, and Kentucky — announced after the IRA passed — directly affect UAW members in the competitive swing-state districts where 2026 House and Senate races will be decided
IRA EV Credits: What They Are and What’s Threatened
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed by President Biden in August 2022, included two major EV tax credits. The consumer credit (Section 30D) provides up to $7,500 for new EV purchases and up to $4,000 for used EVs, subject to income limits and vehicle price caps. The manufacturing credit (Section 45X) provides production tax credits for domestic battery cell and module manufacturing. Together these provisions were estimated to cost approximately $393 billion over ten years but were projected to catalyze hundreds of billions in private investment in EV and battery manufacturing.
The Trump administration and Republican majorities in Congress have targeted Inflation Reduction Act in Medicaid reconciliation legislation as a source of spending reductions. The EV consumer credit has been proposed for elimination or significant modification. Manufacturers who made capital commitments based on the 45X manufacturing credit face uncertainty about the policy environment. Several major EV battery factory projects announced after the IRA passage — in Georgia, Michigan, Tennessee, and Kentucky — have been delayed or scaled back amid policy uncertainty.
| State | Post-IRA EV Investment | Jobs Created | 2026 Senate Race | IRA Rollback Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Hyundai Metaplant $7.6B | 8,500+ | Ossoff (D) — Toss-up | High — threatens factory ramp-up |
| Michigan | Ford, GM, Stellantis $11B+ | 30,000+ UAW-linked | Open seat (Peters retiring) | Very high — UAW contracts tied to EV lines |
| Tennessee | Ford BlueOval $5.6B | 6,000+ | No race 2026 | Medium — non-union, less political pressure |
| Kentucky | Ford BlueOval $5.8B (Glendale) | 5,000+ | No race 2026 | Medium — GOP-controlled, no D pressure |
| Ohio | Honda/LG Energy $4.4B | 2,200+ | Open R seat (Brown lost 2024) | High — no Democratic caucus to defend |
| North Carolina | VinFast $4B (stalled) | Uncertain | No race 2026 | Medium — project already delayed pre-rollback |
UAW: Caught Between the IRA and Tariffs
The United Auto Workers (UAW) supported the Inflation Reduction Act because it included domestic content requirements for the manufacturing credits — designed to ensure that EV battery production happens in the United States in unionized facilities rather than in China. UAW President Shawn Fain was a vocal Biden supporter in 2024, and the union endorsed the Democratic ticket.
But the tariff picture is more complicated. While 100% tariffs on finished Chinese EVs protect American EV manufacturers from Chinese competition, the 145% tariffs on Chinese components — including battery materials, rare earth magnets, and electronic components — raise the cost of building American EVs. UAW members work in facilities that depend on a mix of domestic and imported components. Higher component costs can reduce production volumes, affect hours worked, and delay expansion plans for new EV assembly facilities.
The broader political tension is that the UAW represents workers in Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana — three states critical to both parties’ 2026 and 2028 electoral strategies. Michigan has competitive Senate and governor’s races in 2026. How the EV transition lands on workers in these states — net jobs gained or lost — will be a central campaign issue for Democratic candidates defending or seeking office.
Consumer Views: 52% Open to EV, but Price and Infrastructure Remain Barriers
EV Openness by Party (2026)
Open to purchasing an EV as next vehicle. Source: composite polling average, early 2026.
