- Seven all-mail states (CO, HI, OR, WA, UT, MT, AK) run 55-65% turnout vs. roughly 47% national average — a consistent 8-18 point turnout premium from universal access.
- All-mail voting increases turnout by 3-5 points on average; the effect is largest among low-propensity voters and young voters, both of which lean Democratic on net.
- Post-2020 Republican restrictions: 12+ states have restricted mail voting access; each restriction is estimated to cost Democrats approximately 1-2 points in the affected state.
- Ballot cure policy and drop box density are the most operationally consequential details — minor administrative differences between counties produce measurable turnout differences that campaigns can exploit.
The Seven All-Mail States
Colorado pioneered universal vote-by-mail in 2013. Every registered voter automatically receives a ballot in the mail weeks before Election Day and can return it by mail, drop box, or in person. The model has spread to Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Montana, and Alaska. Each state has its own procedural details — ballot cure policies, drop box density, receipt deadlines — but the core mechanism is the same.
Turnout in all-mail states consistently exceeds the national average. Colorado's midterm participation regularly hits 70-75%, compared to a national median of 47-50% in midterms. Researchers attribute this to the reduction of transaction costs — voters don't need to travel to a polling place, take time off work, or navigate long lines.
Republican Restrictions Since 2020
After the 2020 election, in which Democrats disproportionately used mail ballots while Trump discouraged his supporters from using them, more than 20 Republican-controlled states enacted new restrictions on mail voting. Georgia's SB 202 (2021) required photo ID for absentee ballot requests, reduced drop box availability, and banned third-party ballot return assistance ("ballot harvesting"). Wisconsin required notarization for some early voting categories. Arizona restricted ballot drop boxes and tightened signature verification.
The practical effects have been measurable: early voting rejection rates increased in Georgia and Wisconsin in 2022 and 2024. Many of the rejected ballots belong to first-time mail voters who were unfamiliar with new ID requirements. Voting rights organizations have launched extensive voter education campaigns to reduce rejection rates in 2026.
Turnout Impact: What the Research Shows
The most rigorous studies of all-mail voting find a 2-4 point turnout increase compared to equivalent populations in polling-place states. The effect is concentrated among occasional voters, voters over 65, voters with disabilities, and rural voters with long commutes to polling places. The partisan effect is small and roughly neutral when both parties actively encourage their voters to use mail ballots — which Republicans have increasingly done since 2022.
16 additional states offer no-excuse absentee: CA, AZ, NV, MI, PA, GA (with ID), FL, NC, TX (with excuse required). Competitive states generally have expansive access.
GA, WI, AZ, FL, TX have added new ID or procedural requirements. Drop box elimination most impactful in urban areas where in-person polling places are already strained.
Early vote totals in states with robust early voting are a real-time indicator of turnout and enthusiasm. Analysts watch early vote registration rates to model final turnout for forecasting purposes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which states conduct all elections by mail in 2026?
Seven states: Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Montana, and Alaska. All registered voters automatically receive a ballot by mail. These states consistently have some of the highest turnout rates in the country.
How have Republicans restricted vote by mail since 2020?
20+ Republican-controlled states enacted new restrictions including photo ID requirements for absentee requests (GA), reduced drop boxes (GA), notarization requirements (WI), and tighter signature verification. Measurable increases in ballot rejection rates have followed.
Does voting by mail increase turnout and benefit Democrats?
Research shows a modest +2-4 point turnout increase from all-mail voting. The partisan effect is neutral when both parties encourage mail voting — which Republicans have increasingly done since 2022, reversing the 2020 self-inflicted disadvantage. Utah is an all-mail state that votes heavily Republican.
