European public opinion toward the United States has undergone its most dramatic negative shift since polling of this kind began. Sixty-eight percent of Europeans now hold an unfavorable view of the US, up from 34% in 2020 — a 34-point swing in six years that reflects trade confrontations, NATO disputes, and a fundamental divergence over the Ukraine war.
- 68% of Europeans now hold an unfavorable view of the United States — up from 34% in 2020, a 34-point collapse that is the largest single deterioration in transatlantic public opinion on record.
- The EU has capitalized a €100 billion defense fund and targeted $80 billion in U.S. exports with countermeasures, signaling a strategic shift from reliance to self-sufficiency.
- American public opinion on Europe remains relatively positive at 60%+ favorable, but support for NATO burden-sharing has hardened — with 68% agreeing European members should pay more.
- The Macron-Merz axis has emerged as the EU's diplomatic leadership structure in response to U.S. unpredictability, coordinating defense, trade, and Ukraine policy across major member states.
- Despite the favorability collapse, trade volumes between the U.S. and Europe remain the world's largest bilateral relationship — making full economic decoupling politically difficult on both sides.
Favorability Collapse: Country-by-Country Data
| Country | US Favorable 2020 | US Favorable 2026 | Change | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 78% | 27% | -51 pts | NATO demands, trade tariffs |
| France | 63% | 29% | -34 pts | Ukraine stance, tariffs |
| Spain | 61% | 24% | -37 pts | Trade, social policy perception |
| Poland | 82% | 41% | -41 pts | Ukraine withdrawal fears, troop questions |
| United Kingdom | 73% | 44% | -29 pts | Tariffs, post-Brexit bilateral tensions |
| Sweden | 76% | 35% | -41 pts | NATO uncertainty, new member anxiety |
The Macron-Merz Strategic Axis
The partnership between French President US-Europe relations and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz represents the most consequential Franco-German alignment since the Chirac-Schroeder axis that opposed the Iraq War in 2003. But where Chirac and Schroeder were reacting to a specific US decision, Macron and Merz are pursuing a proactive restructuring of European strategy that explicitly does not depend on US reliability.
The three pillars of the Macron-Merz agenda are: a joint European defense investment framework; coordinated trade retaliation against US tariffs; and a unified diplomatic front on Ukraine that rejects ceasefire terms negotiated under American pressure. Germany’s willingness to join France in an assertive posture toward Washington is historically significant — Germany has traditionally been the most Atlanticist of major European powers, and its pivot reflects how dramatically the second Trump term has shifted the calculus in Berlin.
American Public Opinion on Europe
Views on NATO
52% of Americans still support NATO membership overall, but the alliance’s favorability has declined from 68% in 2020. Republicans split almost evenly at 47% support versus 46% oppose, a dramatic shift from 2016 when Republican NATO support was above 60%.
European Trade Partners
Americans view European nations as important trade partners by 64%, but only 41% support maintaining trade arrangements without tariff leverage. The idea that Europe “takes advantage” of the US on trade, a Trump talking point, is now believed by 52% of Americans — up from 31% in 2020.
European Strategic Autonomy
A notable 58% of Americans say they would support Europe developing its own independent defense capability, even if it reduced US influence in Europe. This includes 72% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans — a cross-partisan acceptance of the strategic realignment underway.
