Complete Demographic Crosstab Table — 2026 Generic Ballot
Generic congressional ballot: "Which party's candidate do you plan to vote for in your district's 2026 House election?" Swing from 2022 = change in D margin vs. 2022 midterm exit polls. Positive swing = toward D.
| Demographic Group | D % | R % | Net Lean | Swing from 2022 | Swing from 2024 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GENDER | ||||||
| Women (all) | 57% | 39% | D+18 | +4 | +3 | Gender gap widening; abortion central for women 18-50 |
| Men (all) | 43% | 51% | R+8 | −2 | −3 | Men moving slightly further R; economic dissatisfaction mixed |
| Women 18–29 | 65% | 32% | D+33 | +8 | +6 | Strongest D lean of any group; abortion + education debt |
| Women 30–44 | 60% | 36% | D+24 | +5 | +4 | Healthcare/childcare dominant concerns |
| Women 45–64 | 54% | 42% | D+12 | +2 | +2 | Social Security/Medicare anxiety driving shift |
| Women 65+ | 49% | 47% | D+2 | +3 | +4 | Senior women moving D on Medicare cut fears |
| Men 18–29 | 49% | 46% | D+3 | −6 | +2 | Young men had R drift in 2022-24; slight D recovery in 2026 |
| Men 30–44 | 44% | 52% | R+8 | −3 | −1 | Economic/trade concerns; crypto issues |
| Men 45–64 | 41% | 54% | R+13 | −2 | −2 | Core R demo; somewhat stable |
| Men 65+ | 43% | 52% | R+9 | +1 | +1 | Senior men slightly more stable but small D drift on SS |
| RACE / ETHNICITY | ||||||
| White (non-Hispanic) | 40% | 56% | R+16 | +1 | +2 | Modest D recovery from 2024 in white working class |
| Black / African American | 82% | 14% | D+68 | −2 | +2 | Bedrock D coalition; slight Trump-era erosion partially reversed |
| Hispanic / Latino | 56% | 38% | D+18 | +4 | +6 | Recovering from 2024 low; Medicaid, deportation fears driving |
| Asian American | 60% | 34% | D+26 | +3 | +4 | Education, democracy norms central; tariff concern in business class |
| White college+ | 52% | 44% | D+8 | +4 | +3 | Suburbs flipping; 2018 trend accelerating |
| White no college | 32% | 62% | R+30 | +2 | +3 | Core Trump demo; slight healthcare-related D recovery |
| EDUCATION | ||||||
| College degree+ | 57% | 41% | D+16 | +3 | +2 | College-educated continuing long D shift (was R-leaning pre-2016) |
| No college degree | 43% | 53% | R+10 | +2 | +3 | Non-college modest D recovery from 2024 low; economic shift |
| Postgraduate degree | 62% | 33% | D+29 | +2 | +2 | Most D-leaning education cohort; academia, science, law |
| Some college, no degree | 46% | 50% | R+4 | +3 | +4 | Key battleground; student debt, community college concerns |
| AGE | ||||||
| 18–29 | 59% | 37% | D+22 | +3 | +4 | Youth recovering from 2024 apathy; DOGE/education cuts galvanizing |
| 30–44 | 51% | 46% | D+5 | +2 | +1 | Narrowly D; housing cost, childcare costs dominant |
| 45–64 | 46% | 50% | R+4 | +1 | +2 | Nearly split; trending slightly D on healthcare/SS concerns |
| 65+ | 47% | 50% | R+3 | +4 | +5 | Seniors moving toward D faster than any age group; Medicare/SS cuts |
| RELIGION | ||||||
| White Evangelical Christian | 20% | 77% | R+57 | −1 | −1 | Most reliably R religious group; stable base |
| Catholic | 48% | 49% | R+1 | +2 | +2 | Swing group; immigration vs. abortion tension |
| Mainline Protestant | 49% | 47% | D+2 | +3 | +2 | Moving slightly D; college-educated suburban profile |
| Jewish | 67% | 29% | D+38 | +4 | +4 | Post-antisemitism incidents driving back toward D |
| Muslim | 62% | 28% | D+34 | +8 | +12 | Major D recovery; 2024 Gaza protest vote fading |
| Religiously unaffiliated | 65% | 29% | D+36 | +3 | +2 | Fastest-growing religious category; strongly D |
| INCOME | ||||||
| Under $30K | 60% | 34% | D+26 | +5 | +6 | Low-income strongly D; Medicaid cuts galvanizing |
| $30K–$75K | 48% | 48% | Even | +2 | +3 | Working-class core battleground; tariff anxiety key |
| $75K–$150K | 50% | 47% | D+3 | +3 | +2 | Upper-middle moving D; college-educated suburban overlap |
| $150K+ | 54% | 43% | D+11 | +5 | +3 | High earners moving D; trade war concerns, institutional stability |
| GEOGRAPHY | ||||||
| Urban | 70% | 26% | D+44 | +1 | +1 | Deeply D; stable |
| Suburban | 54% | 43% | D+11 | +5 | +4 | Suburbs the decisive battleground; 2018 trend continuing |
| Rural | 30% | 65% | R+35 | +3 | +3 | Modest D recovery; farm tariff and rural hospital closures |
| Small city / exurb | 43% | 53% | R+10 | +4 | +4 | Key swing zone; manufacturing job concerns |
Sources: Pew Research Center, NYT/Siena, Quinnipiac, Fox News polls aggregated April 2026. Swing calculations vs. 2022 exit polls (MSNBC/Fox/CNN) and 2024 exit polls (AP VoteCast).
Education Polarization Deepens
The education gap has now reached 26 points — college D+14, non-college R+12. In 2012, there was essentially no education gap. The realignment is driven by: (1) college-educated voters' strong negative reaction to Trump and democratic norm concerns; (2) non-college voters' economic alienation that began before Trump but was consolidated by him. Both trends appear structural and self-reinforcing.
The 26-Point Gender Gap
The 26-point gender gap (W: D+18, M: R+8) is historically unprecedented. For comparison: 1992 saw roughly a 4-point gap; 2018 saw 19 points; 2022 saw 20 points. The current gap is driven primarily by abortion polling galvanizing women under 50 and a growing divergence in how men and women prioritize economic vs. social issues. Young women (18-29) at D+33 are the single most politically activated demographic segment.
Latino Drift Back to Democrats
After Republicans made significant inroads with Latino voters in 2020 and 2024, polling shows 6-point Democratic recovery in 2026. The shift is driven by: (1) Medicaid and healthcare cuts disproportionately affecting Latino communities; (2) Tariff impacts on industries with high Latino employment (construction, agriculture); (3) Deportation fear in mixed-status families. Whether this 6-point recovery holds through November will depend heavily on economic conditions and immigration enforcement tone.
