- Pennsylvania has no Senate election in 2026. Both seats were recently contested: McCormick won in 2024, Fetterman in 2022.
- Dave McCormick (R, Class 1) won the 2024 race by just 0.8 points over three-term incumbent Bob Casey — one of the closest Senate races of the cycle. His seat is next up in 2030.
- John Fetterman (D, Class 3) won in 2022 by 4.9 points over Republican Mehmet Oz despite suffering a stroke during the campaign. His seat is next up in 2028.
- Pennsylvania’s 2028 Senate race (Fetterman’s seat) will be highly competitive — a Class 3 open Senate seat in a state Trump won by 2.0 points in 2024, in an off-year where presidential approval dynamics will be different.
Pennsylvania is one of the most important swing states in US politics, but neither Senate seat is on the ballot in 2026. US senators serve six-year terms staggered across three classes. Pennsylvania’s Senate elections fall in 2028 (Fetterman, Class 3) and 2030 (McCormick, Class 1). The next competitive Pennsylvania Senate race will likely be Fetterman’s 2028 defense in a state that Trump narrowly carried in 2024.
Pennsylvania’s Two Senators in 2026
Dave McCormick (R) — Class 1
David Harold McCormick was born in Bloomsburg, PA, attended West Point, served as an Army Ranger in the Gulf War, earned a Ph.D. from Princeton, and rose to CEO of Bridgewater Associates — the world’s largest hedge fund with $150B+ under management. He lost the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican primary to Mehmet Oz by under 1,000 votes, then returned in 2024 and defeated three-term incumbent Bob Casey by 0.8 points — roughly 40,000 votes out of 6.5 million cast.
Next election: 2030. His hedge fund background and prior Connecticut residency remain potential vulnerabilities if Democrats mount a strong challenge.
John Fetterman (D) — Class 3
John Fetterman served as Mayor of Braddock, PA and then Lt. Governor before winning the 2022 Senate race by 4.9 points over Republican Mehmet Oz — a victory made remarkable by the fact that Fetterman suffered a major stroke in May 2022, just months before the November election. His recovery and continued service have drawn national attention.
Next election: 2028. Fetterman has moved to the center on several issues including border security, making him one of the more politically independent Democrats in the Senate.
Recent Pennsylvania Senate Results
| Year | Class | Republican | Democrat | Margin | Next Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Class 1 | Dave McCormick (won) | Bob Casey (inc.) | R +0.8 | 2030 |
| 2022 | Class 3 | Mehmet Oz | John Fetterman (won) | D +4.9 | 2028 |
| 2018 | Class 1 | Lou Barletta | Bob Casey (inc., won) | D +12.6 | — |
| 2016 | Class 3 | Pat Toomey (won) | Katie McGinty | R +1.5 | — |
| 2012 | Class 1 | Tom Smith | Bob Casey (inc., won) | D +8.4 | — |
The Next Pennsylvania Senate Race: 2028
Fetterman’s 2028 defense: John Fetterman will face re-election in a 2028 presidential year when turnout patterns differ significantly from midterms. His seat (Class 3) is in a state Trump won by 2.0 points in 2024. His record of political independence — supporting stricter border policy, departing from Democratic orthodoxy on some foreign policy issues — could either broaden his appeal in a swing state or create primary vulnerability from the left.
McCormick’s 2030 defense: McCormick won by just 0.8 points in 2024. His vulnerabilities — Greenwich, CT residency history; Bridgewater hedge fund CEO background; carpetbagger narrative — will be available to Democratic challengers in 2030. A structural Democratic wave in that election year could make his seat genuinely competitive.
Bob Casey factor: Casey, who lost his 2024 re-election bid to McCormick, has indicated interest in returning. If he waits to run in 2030 against McCormick, a Casey rematch would produce one of the most expensive Senate races of that cycle — two well-known candidates with existing statewide networks competing for a seat decided by 0.8 points in their first matchup.
2026 Senate Race Context & National Outlook
The 2026 midterm elections are taking place in an environment shaped by significant economic uncertainty. Trump's Liberation Day tariffs triggered a consumer confidence collapse and PCE inflation surged to 4.5% in Q1 2026. The Trump approval rating stands at 38.1% approve / 59.2% disapprove — among the lowest for any first-year president since modern polling began. The Generic Ballot shows Democrats with a consistent +6.0 advantage, a historically predictive indicator of significant House seat gains.
In the Senate, 33 Class 2 seats are up in 2026. Republicans must defend seats in Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Alaska, and Texas, while Democrats defend Nevada, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, and Virginia. Key battleground races that will determine Senate control include Georgia (Jon Ossoff, D), Iowa (open seat, Ernst retires), Nevada (Jacky Rosen, D), and Alaska (Lisa Murkowski, R). The full Senate map is at the Senate 2026 overview.
Issue-level polling context: The top issues driving 2026 are the economy and tariffs, healthcare, immigration, and Social Security. See the Battleground Tracker for the latest state-level polling and the Trump Policy Tracker for executive action context.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Pennsylvania have no Senate race in 2026?
US senators serve six-year terms divided into three classes that stagger elections so roughly one-third of the Senate is elected every two years. Pennsylvania’s two senators happen to fall in the Class 1 cycle (McCormick, next up 2030) and Class 3 cycle (Fetterman, next up 2028). No Class 2 senator represents Pennsylvania, so the state has no Senate race on the 2026 ballot.
Will Bob Casey run again for Senate?
Casey has expressed interest in returning to the Senate after his narrow 2024 loss (0.8 points) to McCormick. His most likely path would be challenging McCormick when his Class 1 seat is up in 2030. Casey’s three-term brand — Scranton roots, healthcare advocate — remains valuable in Pennsylvania’s working-class communities that are the key battleground in any statewide Pennsylvania race.
How competitive is Pennsylvania as a Senate battleground?
Pennsylvania is one of the most competitive Senate states in the country. Three of the last four presidential elections were decided by under 2 points. The 2022 Senate race (Fetterman D +4.9) and the 2024 Senate race (McCormick R +0.8) both reflect a state that leans very slightly Republican presidentially while remaining capable of electing Democrats at the statewide level. See the full Senate 2026 overview for states actually on the ballot this cycle.
Is Pennsylvania important for Senate control in 2026?
No, not directly — Pennsylvania has no 2026 Senate race. The competitive Senate battlegrounds in 2026 include Georgia (Ossoff D defending), Michigan (Peters open seat), New Hampshire (Shaheen open seat), North Carolina (Tillis open seat), and the Ohio special election (Husted vs. Brown). Pennsylvania will matter significantly in the 2028 cycle when Fetterman defends his Class 3 seat.
Actual 2026 Senate Battlegrounds
Georgia — Jon Ossoff
Ossoff defending in Trump +2.2 state. Most competitive D seat.
Michigan — Peters Open Seat
Gary Peters retiring. Buttigieg/McMorrow (D) vs. Huizenga (R).
Ohio — Special Election
Brown vs. Husted (Vance seat). Brown won D primary May 5, 2026.
North Carolina — Tillis Open Seat
Cooper (D) leads Whatley (R) by ~8 pts.
New Hampshire — Shaheen Open Seat
Shaheen D retiring. Trump carried NH +2.8 in 2024.
All Senate Races 2026
Full map of all competitive and Class 2 Senate seats on the ballot.