California Governor Race 2026
Gavin Newsom's term limit creates the most consequential open governor races in America. The winner will lead the world's fifth-largest economy, and the Democratic primary will likely feature a defining contest over the future direction of California — and potentially the national Democratic Party heading into 2028.
Likely Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Status | Background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eleni Kounalakis | Democrat | Declared/Likely | Lt. Governor since 2019, former U.S. Ambassador to Hungary, real estate developer |
| Rob Bonta | Democrat | Likely candidate | State AG since 2021, former assemblyman, progressive profile |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | Democrat | Expected candidate | Former LA Mayor (2005-2013), ran in 2018 primary (finished 2nd), centrist |
| Republican TBD | Republican | Nominal | May not even make top-two; no GOP statewide win since 2006 |
Key Issues
| Issue | Progressive Wing | Moderate Wing |
|---|---|---|
| Homelessness | Housing First, more funding, oppose criminalization | Enforcement + treatment mandates, accountability for spending |
| Housing Costs | Renter protections, social housing | Zoning reform, increase supply, streamline permitting |
| Crime | Oppose incarceration expansion, Prop 47 defense | Prop 36 (2024) implementation, tougher enforcement |
| Climate/Energy | Accelerate fossil fuel phase-out | Maintain reliability, avoid energy cost spikes |
Gavin Newsom's Legacy and 2028 Ambitions
Gavin Newsom has been one of the most nationally prominent Democratic governors in the country, frequently engaging in rhetorical battles with Republican governors and President Trump. He launched a nationwide advertising campaign in red states, debated Ron DeSantis on Fox News, and has been widely discussed as a 2028 presidential candidate since before Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat.
His governance record is mixed. California's homelessness crisis has worsened under his tenure despite massive spending. Housing costs remain among the nation's highest. Crime rose and the 2024 ballot measure Prop 36 — which reversed parts of 2014's Prop 47 on drug and theft crimes — passed over his opposition. On the positive side: California has led on climate policy, expanded healthcare polling, and maintained a large state surplus through much of his tenure. His departure for the 2028 presidential race is widely assumed regardless of whether he announces before or after the 2026 elections cycle.
The Democratic Primary Battle
The California governor's race will be decided in the Democratic primary. California uses a top-two primary system where all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party, and the top two vote-getters advance — meaning the general election could feature two Democrats if no Republican clears enough support.
Eleni Kounalakis has the institutional advantages of the Lt. Governor's office, Newsom's potential endorsement, and ties to the state's Democratic donor network. Rob Bonta brings the progressive credibility of the AG's office and a strong ethnic coalition (Filipino-American, Bay Area base). Antonio Villaraigosa ran before and finished second in 2018 — he brings Latino voter appeal and a more centrist, law-and-order brand that could appeal to the suburban voters who have grown frustrated with Democratic governance. The primary outcome will signal which wing of California Democrats has the upper hand heading into 2028.
California's Structural Challenges
The next California governor will inherit a state with extraordinary resources and extraordinary problems. California has the world's fifth-largest economy (ahead of most G7 nations), two of the nation's top-five metros, world-leading technology and entertainment industries, and major agricultural production.
It also has the nation's highest cost of living, a homelessness crisis visible in every major city, housing costs that make homeownership unattainable for much of the working and middle class, and periodic budget crises driven by the state's reliance on capital gains taxes from tech sector income. The structural tension between California's progressive policy ambitions and the affordability and governance failures that have driven net population outflow will define the next governorship. The winner must grapple with these contradictions in ways that Newsom largely avoided through rhetoric and blame-shifting.