Connecticut 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Connecticut in the 2026 midterm elections.
Safe D
2026 State Rating
-14
Trump 2024 Margin
Economy, housing, property taxes
Key Issue
Connecticut
State
2026 Election Overview
Connecticut’s open governor race will be competitive. Republicans have won the governorship before in this state. A top-tier Republican candidate in a favorable national environment could win. The 5th congressional district is perpetually competitive.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Safe D |
| Trump 2024 Margin | -14 |
| U.S. Senate | Chris Murphy (D) — not up in 2026 |
| Governor | Ned Lamont (D) — term-limited, open race |
| U.S. House Seats | 3D, 2R — CT-5 competitive |
| Key Issue | Economy, housing, property taxes |
Forecast
Governor race is competitive — lean-D but Republicans can win. Democrats defend CT-5 House seat.