Hawaii Economic Outlook 2026
GDP growth, unemployment, tariff impacts, and economic forecast for Hawaii heading into the 2026 elections.
2.5%
GDP Growth Rate
3.2%
Unemployment Rate
Balanced
State Budget Outlook
Stable
Job Growth Forecast
2026 Economic Overview
Hawaii’s economy depends on tourism and federal spending. Climate change threatens coral reefs and beaches that drive tourism. Cost of living is the dominant voter concern.
Key Economic Indicators
| Indicator | Value / Status |
|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Unemployment Rate | 3.2% |
| Top Economic Sector | Tourism & Federal Military |
| State Budget Outlook | Balanced |
| Job Growth Forecast | Stable |
| Tariff Impact | Low — tourism economy not directly exposed |
| Key Economic Risk | Tourism concentration risk; high cost of living limiting workforce; climate disruption to beaches |