Will Josh Green run for re-election as Hawaii governor in 2026?

Josh Green, who was elected Hawaii governor in 2022 with roughly 63% of the vote, is eligible for a second term in 2026. Hawaii is the most Democratic state in the nation at D+40 presidential lean, making any Republican challenge essentially impossible. Green's approval has been affected by his handling of the August 2023 Lahaina wildfire — the deadliest US wildfire in over a century — and ongoing criticism of the state's housing affordability crisis and high cost of living. A Democratic primary challenge is more likely than any Republican threat.

How did the Lahaina wildfire affect Hawaii Governor Josh Green?

The August 2023 wildfire that destroyed the historic town of Lahaina on Maui was the deadliest wildfire in the United States in over a century, killing at least 100 people and destroying thousands of structures. Governor Green's response to the disaster — including debates about water resource allocation, evacuation procedures, and the pace and fairness of the recovery process — became a major source of criticism and controversy. Investigations into the causes of the fire, insurance disputes, and disagreements over rebuilding plans for Lahaina created ongoing political pressure on Green's administration through his first term.

What are the key issues in Hawaii's 2026 governor race?

Hawaii's governor race will center on the housing affordability crisis (Hawaii has some of the highest housing costs in the country, driven by geographic constraints, regulation, and high demand from mainlanders), the ongoing Lahaina wildfire recovery, tourism policy (overtourism concerns versus economic dependence), and healthcare access (Hawaii was the first state to mandate employer-provided healthcare). Governor Green, as a physician, has focused heavily on healthcare and public health issues. Military presence on Oahu and federal land use are perennial issues given Hawaii's large federal military footprint.

Home › States › Hawaii › Governor Race

Safe D — Most Democratic State, Real Issues Lahaina & Housing

Hawaii Governor Race 2026: Josh Green Seeks Second Term

HI D+40 · Most Democratic state in the US · Green won 2022 by 63% · Lahaina wildfire recovery · Housing crisis · Tourism economy

D+40

Biden HI margin 2020

63%

Green 2022 vote share

Lahaina

2023 wildfire — 100+ killed

Safe D

2026 race rating

Hawaii Governor 2026 — Key Numbers

~50%

Green approval (est.)

Lahaina controversy impact

D+40

State presidential lean

Most Democratic state

100+

Lahaina wildfire deaths

Ongoing recovery 2026

Safe D

Cook Political Report

D primary more likely contest

2026 Hawaii Governor — Candidates

Candidate	Party	Background	Outlook
Josh Green	Democrat	Incumbent Governor; emergency room physician	Likely running; primary challenge possible
Potential Democratic primary challenger	Democrat	State legislators or local officials citing Lahaina	More likely threat than Republican
TBD Republican candidate	Republican	Nominal opposition only	No path in D+40 state

Analysis: Hawaii’s 2026 Governor Race

Lahaina Recovery

Deadliest US Wildfire in a Century

The August 8, 2023 wildfire that destroyed Lahaina killed at least 100 people, making it the deadliest US wildfire since 1918. The fire burned through the historic waterfront town, destroying thousands of structures and displacing thousands of residents. Questions about why emergency sirens were not activated, how water resources were managed as the fire approached, and the pace of rebuilding created sustained political controversy for Green’s administration. By 2026, the state of the Lahaina recovery — how many displaced residents have returned, whether rebuilding has occurred fairly and quickly, and how the community’s cultural heritage has been protected — will be central to Green’s re-election narrative.

Housing & Cost of Living

The Permanent Crisis of Hawaii Affordability

Hawaii consistently ranks as one of the least affordable housing markets in the United States, a structural problem driven by geographic constraint (island land supply is fixed), strict land use regulation, high construction costs (all materials must be shipped), and consistent demand from mainland buyers and retirees. The median home price in Honolulu exceeds $800,000. Governor Green has prioritized housing as a central issue, pushing for zoning reform and workforce housing initiatives, but the scale of Hawaii’s housing crisis far exceeds any single term’s policy capacity. Net outmigration of native Hawaiians and working-class residents to the mainland has been ongoing for decades and remains a major social issue.

Tourism Economy

Overtourism vs. Economic Dependence

Tourism drives approximately 20% of Hawaii’s GDP and is the foundation of the state’s private sector economy. Yet overtourism has created significant community resentment, environmental stress on reefs and natural areas, and infrastructure strain on roads, water, and waste systems. Governor Green has attempted to reframe Hawaii’s tourism strategy around “regenerative tourism” — attracting higher-spending visitors while managing visitor volumes — without the tools to actually limit visitor numbers given federal constitutional constraints. The COVID-era tourism collapse (2020-2021) demonstrated Hawaii’s severe economic vulnerability to tourism disruptions, reinforcing both the dependence and the desire for diversification.