Idaho 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Idaho in the 2026 midterm elections.
Safe R
2026 State Rating
+30
Trump 2024 Margin
Public lands, water rights, Idaho growth management
Key Issue
Idaho
State
2026 Election Overview
Idaho’s Republican primary for governor will be its main political event. Term-limited Brad Little leaves an open race attracting multiple conservative candidates. Democrats have no statewide reach. The growth-vs-conservation divide within the Republican Party is the main intra-party story.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Safe R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +30 |
| U.S. Senate | Mike Crapo (R) — safe reelection |
| Governor | Brad Little (R) — term-limited, Republican primary battle |
| U.S. House Seats | 2R — not competitive |
| Key Issue | Public lands, water rights, Idaho growth management |
Forecast
Republicans hold everything. The governor primary determines policy direction on public lands and growth.