Idaho 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast

Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Idaho in the 2026 midterm elections.

Safe R
2026 State Rating
+30
Trump 2024 Margin
Public lands, water rights, Idaho growth management
Key Issue
Idaho
State

2026 Election Overview

Idaho’s Republican primary for governor will be its main political event. Term-limited Brad Little leaves an open race attracting multiple conservative candidates. Democrats have no statewide reach. The growth-vs-conservation divide within the Republican Party is the main intra-party story.

Key Races

RaceStatus
State RatingSafe R
Trump 2024 Margin+30
U.S. SenateMike Crapo (R) — safe reelection
GovernorBrad Little (R) — term-limited, Republican primary battle
U.S. House Seats2R — not competitive
Key IssuePublic lands, water rights, Idaho growth management

Forecast

Republicans hold everything. The governor primary determines policy direction on public lands and growth.

Related Idaho Pages

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Generic Ballot Democrats48.1% Republicans41.1% D+7 Trump Approval Approve39% Disapprove58% Senate D47 R53 House D213 R222 Generic Ballot Tracker Trump Approval Senate 2026 House 2026 Latest Analysis