Illinois 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Illinois in the 2026 midterm elections.
Safe D
2026 State Rating
-17
Trump 2024 Margin
Crime (Chicago), pension crisis, economy
Key Issue
Illinois
State
2026 Election Overview
Illinois has a major Senate opening with Dick Durbin retiring. The Democratic primary will be competitive and contested. JB Pritzker faces reelection in a challenging environment given Chicago crime narratives and the state’s fiscal challenges. Several House seats are competitive.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Safe D |
| Trump 2024 Margin | -17 |
| U.S. Senate | Dick Durbin (D) retiring — open seat, very competitive |
| Governor | JB Pritzker (D) — up in 2026, facing reelection |
| U.S. House Seats | 14D, 3R — IL-13, IL-17 competitive |
| Key Issue | Crime (Chicago), pension crisis, economy |
Forecast
Senate seat is likely-D but Republican can compete. Governor race is lean-D. Democrats defend IL-13 and IL-17.