Iowa 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections.
Likely R
2026 State Rating
+13
Trump 2024 Margin
Agricultural tariff impact, economy, Kim Reynolds popularity
Key Issue
Iowa
State
2026 Election Overview
Iowa has moved significantly toward Republicans but IA-1 (Davenport/eastern Iowa) remains competitive. Governor Kim Reynolds faces reelection in a competitive environment — she is popular but the national environment matters. The tariff impact on Iowa agriculture is a live political issue.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Likely R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +13 |
| U.S. Senate | Joni Ernst (R) — just won in 2024 |
| Governor | Kim Reynolds (R) — not up until 2026 term ends; reelection watch |
| U.S. House Seats | 3R, 1D — IA-1 very competitive |
| Key Issue | Agricultural tariff impact, economy, Kim Reynolds popularity |
Forecast
Reynolds favored for reelection but IA-1 House seat is competitive and could flip.