What drives Republican strength in Iowa?

Northwest Iowa rural counties (Steve King territory), Des Moines suburbs. Key realignment driver: Rural white non-college realignment, trade policy concerns, cultural identity politics

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Likely Republican

Iowa Political History & Voting Patterns

Q: How has Iowa voted historically in presidential elections?

Obama won twice; shifted red 2016; now lean-R. Iowa is perhaps the clearest example of the white working-class realignment. Obama won Iowa by 9 points in 2008 and 5.8 points in 2012. The same voters who liked Obama flipped to Trump in 2016 by 9.5 points — a 15-point swing in four years. Iowa's rural, small-city electorate (Des Moines, Cedar Rapi

Obama won twice; shifted red 2016; now lean-R. A complete guide to how Iowa has voted in presidential elections, which coalitions have driven results, and how the state has shifted over time.

R+8

Current Lean

Electoral Votes

3.2M

Population

Historical Overview

Iowa is perhaps the clearest example of the white working-class realignment. Obama won Iowa by 9 points in 2008 and 5.8 points in 2012. The same voters who liked Obama flipped to Trump in 2016 by 9.5 points — a 15-point swing in four years. Iowa’s rural, small-city electorate (Des Moines, Cedar Rapids) drifted right on cultural issues and trade while Democrats became associated with college towns and urban cosmopolitanism. Iowa also has the first-in-the-nation caucus, giving it outsized political attention every four years. Terry Branstad’s long Republican governorship (1983-99, 2011-17) and his appointment as China ambassador under Trump bookend Iowa’s partisan journey.