Kentucky 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Kentucky in the 2026 midterm elections.
Safe R
2026 State Rating
+30
Trump 2024 Margin
Opioid recovery, coal transition, bourbon tariffs
Key Issue
Kentucky
State
2026 Election Overview
Kentucky’s open governor race will test whether Andy Beshear’s Democratic model can be replicated. The 2026 race will likely see a Republican win without Beshear on the ballot. McConnell’s retirement reshapes Kentucky’s Senate delegation.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Safe R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +30 |
| U.S. Senate | Mitch McConnell retired — seat held by Andy Barr (R) |
| Governor | Andy Beshear (D) — term-limited, open race (R favored) |
| U.S. House Seats | 5R, 1D (KY-3 Louisville D) — not competitive |
| Key Issue | Opioid recovery, coal transition, bourbon tariffs |
Forecast
Republicans win governor in open race. All other races safe Republican.