Michigan 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections.
Toss-Up
2026 State Rating
+1.4
Trump 2024 Margin
Auto industry/EV transition, economy, abortion
Key Issue
Michigan
State
2026 Election Overview
Michigan is the #2 Senate battleground behind Georgia. Gary Peters retiring creates an open seat that Republicans are heavily targeting. Multiple competitive House districts will be contested. The auto industry economic story shapes everything. Whitmer not being on the ballot removes Democrats’ strongest statewide draw.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Toss-Up |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +1.4 |
| U.S. Senate | Gary Peters (D) retiring — open seat, massive battleground |
| Governor | Gretchen Whitmer (D) not up in 2026 (won in 2022) |
| U.S. House Seats | 7D, 6R — MI-7, MI-8, MI-10 competitive |
| Key Issue | Auto industry/EV transition, economy, abortion |
Forecast
Senate race is true toss-up — top 3 nationally. 2-3 House seats could flip either direction. Michigan is the most economically consequential 2026 state.