Minnesota 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections.
Lean D
2026 State Rating
-5
Trump 2024 Margin
Economy, healthcare, abortion rights
Key Issue
Minnesota
State
2026 Election Overview
Minnesota has competitive House races in the suburbs and exurbs. No Senate seat is up. The state continues to be lean-Democratic at the statewide level but with competitive suburban districts.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Lean D |
| Trump 2024 Margin | -5 |
| U.S. Senate | Tina Smith (D) not up in 2026; Amy Klobuchar not up |
| Governor | Tim Walz (D) not up (ran for VP, then remains governor through 2026) |
| U.S. House Seats | 4D, 4R — MN-2, MN-3 competitive |
| Key Issue | Economy, healthcare, abortion rights |
Forecast
MN-2 and MN-3 are competitive House races. Democrats favored statewide but margins will be tested.