Missouri Political History & Voting Patterns
Ultimate bellwether through 2004; shifted R sharply after 2008. A complete guide to how Missouri has voted in presidential elections, which coalitions have driven results, and how the state has shifted over time.
Historical Overview
Missouri was the quintessential bellwether state, voting with the winning presidential candidate in 26 of 27 elections from 1904 to 2004 (the exception was 1956). John McCain ended that streak in 2008 when he won Missouri by 0.1 points while losing the presidency. Missouri has since shifted dramatically Republican, driven by the St. Louis exurbs and rural areas. Kansas City and St. Louis proper remain Democratic strongholds, but they are increasingly surrounded by Republican suburbs. Josh Hawley’s rise from attorney general to senator represents Missouri’s MAGA political evolution.
Key Elections & Turning Points
| Year | Significance |
|---|---|
| 2000 | Bush won by 3 pts; MO correctly called winner 26 of 27 elections |
| 2008 | McCain won by 0.1%; first time since 1956 MO voted differently from winner |
| 2012 | Romney +9; bellwether status lost |
| 2016 | Trump +19; Josh Hawley wins AG |
| 2018 | Hawley beats Heitkamp |
| 2024 | Trump +19; Cori Bush lost primary to Wesley Bell |
Geographic Voting Patterns
Democratic Strongholds
St. Louis City (D+75+), Kansas City/Jackson County, Boone County (Columbia/MU)
Republican Strongholds
Jefferson County, St. Charles County, all rural MO; Springfield and Cape Girardeau
Realignment Driver
Primary factor: Rural white realignment, St. Louis exurban expansion, loss of manufacturing union jobs