Montana 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Montana in the 2026 midterm elections.
Lean R
2026 State Rating
+19
Trump 2024 Margin
Public lands, tariff impact on agriculture, water
Key Issue
Montana
State
2026 Election Overview
Montana has moved firmly Republican but its competitive political culture means statewide races attract quality candidates. With Tester gone, Montana has all-Republican delegation for now. The 2026 House races in the newly drawn 2-seat map will be watched.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Lean R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +19 |
| U.S. Senate | Steve Daines (R) — not up; Jon Tester lost in 2024 |
| Governor | Greg Gianforte (R) — term-limited 2024, new governor incumbent |
| U.S. House Seats | 2R (CD-2 newly drawn) — Zooey Zephyr makes MT competitive |
| Key Issue | Public lands, tariff impact on agriculture, water |
Forecast
Republicans hold both House seats but margins in CD-1 (western Montana) may be close.