Nevada 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections.
Toss-Up
2026 State Rating
+3
Trump 2024 Margin
Economy (cost of living), gaming/tourism, immigration
Key Issue
Nevada
State
2026 Election Overview
Nevada is a genuine toss-up state. Governor Lombardo faces reelection in a competitive state. Competitive House districts in Las Vegas suburbs. The Latino vote and Culinary Union organizing make Nevada fascinating.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Toss-Up |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +3 |
| U.S. Senate | Jacky Rosen (D) won in 2024 — not up; Catherine Cortez Masto not up |
| Governor | Joe Lombardo (R) — up for reelection in 2026 |
| U.S. House Seats | 3D, 1R — NV-1, NV-4 competitive |
| Key Issue | Economy (cost of living), gaming/tourism, immigration |
Forecast
Governor race is toss-up. House races are competitive. Nevada is a top-tier swing state in 2026.