New Hampshire 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for New Hampshire in the 2026 midterm elections.
Toss-Up
2026 State Rating
+1
Trump 2024 Margin
Economy, housing costs, tariff impact on manufacturing
Key Issue
New Hampshire
State
2026 Election Overview
The Shaheen retirement creates the #3 Senate battleground nationally. New Hampshire has two competitive House districts. The state swings significantly between parties in midterms. Trump won it by 1 point in 2024 but Democrats have won statewide.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Toss-Up |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +1 |
| U.S. Senate | Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring — open seat, top battleground |
| Governor | Kelly Ayotte (R) just won in 2024 — not up |
| U.S. House Seats | 2D — NH-1, NH-2 both competitive |
| Key Issue | Economy, housing costs, tariff impact on manufacturing |
Forecast
Senate seat is pure toss-up — could easily go either way. Both House seats are competitive. New Hampshire is a top-tier battleground.