New York 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for New York in the 2026 midterm elections.
Lean D
2026 State Rating
-12
Trump 2024 Margin
Crime, cost of living, housing, SALT deduction
Key Issue
New York
State
2026 Election Overview
New York is the #1 state for competitive House races in 2026. Democrats won several New York suburban seats in 2024 that Republicans are targeting back. Hochul faces reelection in what should be a favorable environment for Democrats but crime and cost of living are real vulnerabilities.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Lean D |
| Trump 2024 Margin | -12 |
| U.S. Senate | Kirsten Gillibrand (D) — not up; Chuck Schumer not up in 2026 |
| Governor | Kathy Hochul (D) — up in 2026 for reelection |
| U.S. House Seats | 19D, 7R — NY-3, NY-4, NY-17, NY-22 competitive |
| Key Issue | Crime, cost of living, housing, SALT deduction |
Forecast
4-5 competitive House races — this is the most important House battlefield. Hochul likely wins reelection. Democrats defending NY-3, NY-4, NY-17, NY-22.