Is Kathy Hochul running for re-election as New York governor in 2026?

Kathy Hochul, who won the 2022 New York governor race against Lee Zeldin by approximately 5.3 percentage points — an unexpectedly narrow margin in a D+23 state — is expected to seek re-election in 2026. Hochul became governor in August 2021 when Andrew Cuomo resigned. Her 2022 near-miss against Zeldin, combined with an approval rating around 44%, makes her the most vulnerable sitting Democratic governor in a Democratic state. Zeldin is expected to run again and the race is expected to be the most competitive Democratic governor race in 2026.

Why did Kathy Hochul nearly lose to Lee Zeldin in 2022?

Lee Zeldin nearly defeated Kathy Hochul in 2022 despite New York's D+23 presidential lean for several reasons: crime and public safety was the dominant issue in New York City, where rising subway crime, high-profile violent incidents, and bail reform controversy drove intense Republican engagement; Zeldin is a moderate Republican who focused relentlessly on crime rather than cultural conservative issues that would have alienated New York moderates; the national political environment in October 2022 strongly favored Republicans; and Hochul was an unelected incumbent with less than a year of public visibility as governor, giving her lower name recognition and weaker political infrastructure than a typical incumbent. Zeldin lost but dramatically outperformed the presidential baseline, suggesting New York was moving.

What are the key issues in New York's 2026 governor race?

New York's governor race will again center on public safety and crime (bail reform, subway safety, district attorney policies in NYC), housing affordability (the New York City metro has the most severe housing shortage of any US metro), cost of living, and economic competitiveness. Hochul has tried to reposition on crime and housing since 2022, pushing significant housing legislation. The national political environment in 2026 — which historically favors the out-party in midterms — would advantage Democrats, but in New York this cuts against Hochul since Democrats dominate and a pro-Republican national wave could further tighten New York's governor race.

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Likely D / Competitive — Hochul Barely Won 2022, Zeldin Returns

New York Governor Race 2026: Hochul’s Vulnerable Re-Election vs. Zeldin

NY D+23 but Hochul won 2022 by only 5 pts · Approval 44% · Zeldin likely running again · Crime still central issue · Most competitive D gov race 2026

D+23

Biden NY margin 2020

44%

Hochul approval est.

+5.3

Hochul 2022 margin

Likely D

But genuinely competitive

New York Governor 2026 — Key Numbers

44%

Hochul approval (est.)

Low for a D governor in D+23

D+23

State presidential lean

Strong D base but eroded

+5.3

Hochul 2022 margin

Worst NY D gov win in decades

Likely D

2026 early rating

Competitive for NY standards

2026 New York Governor — Candidates

Candidate	Party	Background	Outlook
Kathy Hochul	Democrat	Incumbent Governor (since 2021); former Lt. Governor	Vulnerable but still favored
Lee Zeldin	Republican	Former US Rep. NY-01; lost 2022 by 5.3 pts	Most likely R nominee; competitive
Potential D primary challenger	Democrat	Progressives or NYC officials	Primary challenge possible given low approval
Other R candidates	Republican	Harry Wilson or others	Possible moderate R primary challenge to Zeldin

Analysis: New York’s 2026 Governor Race

Hochul’s Vulnerabilities

The Governor D+23 New York Almost Fired

Kathy Hochul became governor when Andrew Cuomo resigned under sexual harassment and nursing home scandal pressure in August 2021. She won a full term in 2022, but her 5.3-point margin against Zeldin was the worst general election performance by a Democratic governor candidate in New York in decades. Her approval has hovered around 44%, depressed by crime concerns, a controversial Penn Station redevelopment deal involving real estate donors, and a 2023 congestion pricing reversal that angered transit advocates and business groups alike. Hochul has pushed significant housing legislation, which has been both a governing priority and a political risk as some suburban communities resist new development. Her path to re-election requires improving these negatives.

Zeldin’s Return

The 2022 Template for Competitive NY

Lee Zeldin’s 2022 campaign demonstrated that a Republican can be competitive in New York if they focus relentlessly on crime, avoid cultural war flashpoints that alienate NYC metro moderates, and benefit from a favorable national environment. Zeldin, who represents Long Island and has an instinct for crossover appeal, ran a near-perfect 2022 campaign on public safety. A second run in 2026 would give him better name recognition, stronger New York donor relationships, and the advantage of knowing exactly what worked. The question is whether crime issues remain as salient in 2026, whether Hochul has sufficiently repositioned on public safety, and whether the midterm anti-incumbent-party wave benefits Democrats (as the out-party nationally) in ways that protect Hochul.

The NYC Factor

New York City Drives Every NY Statewide Race

New York City’s five boroughs contain roughly 43% of New York State’s total population and cast an even higher share of votes in Democratic primaries. Democrats must run up enormous margins in NYC to survive competitive Republican challenges from Long Island and upstate New York. In 2022, Zeldin performed unexpectedly well in Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx on crime and cost-of-living issues — suggesting that NYC’s reliably Democratic base is not as secure as assumed when crime and affordability dominate. Any Democratic governor must tend to NYC’s progressive base while winning back suburban voters who broke for Zeldin. The balance between progressive urban politics and suburban crime/cost concerns defines Hochul’s political challenge.