North Carolina 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections.
Toss-Up
2026 State Rating
+3
Trump 2024 Margin
Economy, abortion, immigration
Key Issue
North Carolina
State
2026 Election Overview
North Carolina is one of the most competitive states nationally. Tillis faces reelection in a state where margins are razor-thin. Multiple competitive House districts. Democrats hold the governor mansion but Republicans have statewide structural advantages.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Toss-Up |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +3 |
| U.S. Senate | Thom Tillis (R) — up in 2026, competitive |
| Governor | Josh Stein (D) just won in 2024 — not up |
| U.S. House Seats | 7R, 7D — NC-1, NC-6, NC-13 competitive |
| Key Issue | Economy, abortion, immigration |
Forecast
Tillis Senate race is competitive — lean-R in the environment. Multiple House seats contested. NC is a perpetual battleground.