Ohio 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections.
Lean R
2026 State Rating
+11
Trump 2024 Margin
Economy, auto/manufacturing, Intel investment, abortion (2023 vote)
Key Issue
Ohio
State
2026 Election Overview
Ohio has shifted Republican but retains competitive House seats and an open governor race. The 2023 abortion rights vote showed Ohio voters’ complexity. The open governor race will be competitive. Intel’s semiconductor investment is the economic story of the decade for the state.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Lean R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +11 |
| U.S. Senate | Bernie Moreno (R) won in 2024 — not up; Sherrod Brown lost |
| Governor | Mike DeWine (R) term-limited — open race |
| U.S. House Seats | 10R, 5D — OH-1, OH-9, OH-13 competitive |
| Key Issue | Economy, auto/manufacturing, Intel investment, abortion (2023 vote) |
Forecast
Governor race is lean-R open seat. Several competitive House races. Ohio remains more competitive than its presidential margins suggest.