Oklahoma 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Oklahoma in the 2026 midterm elections.
Safe R
2026 State Rating
+33
Trump 2024 Margin
Energy policy, tribal sovereignty, agriculture
Key Issue
Oklahoma
State
2026 Election Overview
Oklahoma is safely Republican. The open governor primary will be the main political event. Tribal sovereignty issues around gaming and jurisdiction remain unique Oklahoma political concerns.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Safe R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +33 |
| U.S. Senate | James Lankford (R) — not up; Markwayne Mullin not up |
| Governor | Kevin Stitt (R) — term-limited, open Republican primary |
| U.S. House Seats | 5R — not competitive |
| Key Issue | Energy policy, tribal sovereignty, agriculture |
Forecast
Republicans hold everything. Governor primary determines policy direction.