Oregon 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Oregon in the 2026 midterm elections.
Likely D
2026 State Rating
-16
Trump 2024 Margin
Crime, housing, homelessness, natural resources
Key Issue
Oregon
State
2026 Election Overview
Oregon Democrats face headwinds from crime and homelessness backlash. The governor reelection could be competitive if Republicans find a strong candidate. OR-5 is consistently competitive. If Wyden retires, the Senate race would be nationally significant.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Likely D |
| Trump 2024 Margin | -16 |
| U.S. Senate | Ron Wyden (D) — if he retires, open seat competitive |
| Governor | Tina Kotek (D) — up for reelection in 2026 |
| U.S. House Seats | 4D, 1R — OR-5 competitive |
| Key Issue | Crime, housing, homelessness, natural resources |
Forecast
Governor race is lean-D but competitive. OR-5 House seat is competitive. Senate race depends on Wyden decision.