Pennsylvania 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Pennsylvania in the 2026 midterm elections.
Toss-Up
2026 State Rating
+2
Trump 2024 Margin
Economy (steel/manufacturing), natural gas, abortion
Key Issue
Pennsylvania
State
2026 Election Overview
Pennsylvania is the single most important state for 2026. Fetterman’s Senate reelection will be the most expensive race nationally. Multiple competitive House districts. Shapiro not being on the ballot removes Democrats’ strongest statewide draw. The state economy — manufacturing, natural gas, steel — dominates policy debates.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Toss-Up |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +2 |
| U.S. Senate | John Fetterman (D) — up in 2026, competitive |
| Governor | Josh Shapiro (D) — not up in 2026 (won 2022) |
| U.S. House Seats | 9D, 8R — PA-7, PA-8, PA-17 competitive |
| Key Issue | Economy (steel/manufacturing), natural gas, abortion |
Forecast
Fetterman Senate race is toss-up — arguably #1 national race. 3-4 competitive House seats. Pennsylvania determines Senate majority control.