South Carolina 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections.
Safe R
2026 State Rating
+13
Trump 2024 Margin
Economy, immigration, manufacturing growth
Key Issue
South Carolina
State
2026 Election Overview
South Carolina is safely Republican. The open governor race will be a Republican primary battle. SC-1 (Charleston coast) is the most competitive district but only in strong Democratic environments.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Safe R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +13 |
| U.S. Senate | Tim Scott (R) — not up; Lindsey Graham not up in 2026 |
| Governor | Henry McMaster (R) — term-limited, open race |
| U.S. House Seats | 6R, 1D — SC-1 competitive in strong D environments |
| Key Issue | Economy, immigration, manufacturing growth |
Forecast
Republicans hold everything. Governor primary is the main political event.