South Dakota 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for South Dakota in the 2026 midterm elections.
Safe R
2026 State Rating
+29
Trump 2024 Margin
Agriculture tariffs, Noem national profile, direct democracy tension
Key Issue
South Dakota
State
2026 Election Overview
South Dakota is safely Republican. Noem’s reelection is not seriously contested despite her controversial national profile. The tension between voter-approved ballot initiatives and legislative resistance continues.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Safe R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +29 |
| U.S. Senate | Mike Rounds (R) — not up; John Thune is Majority Leader |
| Governor | Kristi Noem (R) — up for reelection in 2026 |
| U.S. House Seats | 1R at-large — not competitive |
| Key Issue | Agriculture tariffs, Noem national profile, direct democracy tension |
Forecast
Noem wins reelection. Republicans hold everything.