Tennessee 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections.
Safe R
2026 State Rating
+29
Trump 2024 Margin
Economic growth (Ford investment), gun policy after Nashville shooting, abortion
Key Issue
Tennessee
State
2026 Election Overview
Tennessee is safely Republican but has interesting internal Republican dynamics. Marsha Blackburn faces a potential primary challenge from the right. The Nashville Covenant School shooting and gun policy is a live issue. Ford’s massive Blue Oval City investment shapes economic politics.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Safe R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +29 |
| U.S. Senate | Marsha Blackburn (R) — up in 2026, faces primary challenge |
| Governor | Bill Lee (R) — not up until 2026 (his term ends) |
| U.S. House Seats | 7R, 2D — not competitive in general election |
| Key Issue | Economic growth (Ford investment), gun policy after Nashville shooting, abortion |
Forecast
Blackburn wins Senate reelection (primary challenge unlikely to succeed). Republicans hold all congressional seats.