Texas Economic Outlook 2026
GDP growth, unemployment, tariff impacts, and economic forecast for Texas heading into the 2026 elections.
3.8%
GDP Growth Rate
4.0%
Unemployment Rate
Surplus
State Budget Outlook
Growing
Job Growth Forecast
2026 Economic Overview
Texas is the economic growth engine of the country. The power grid failure in Winter Storm Uri remains a political scar. Democrats target the suburbs of Austin, Houston, Dallas where economic concerns overlap with social issues.
Key Economic Indicators
| Indicator | Value / Status |
|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate | 3.8% |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.0% |
| Top Economic Sector | Energy, Tech, Manufacturing |
| State Budget Outlook | Surplus |
| Job Growth Forecast | Growing |
| Tariff Impact | Moderate — energy exports benefit; manufacturing and agriculture have some exposure |
| Key Economic Risk | Power grid reliability (ERCOT); water scarcity; rapid growth straining infrastructure |