Likely Republican

Texas Electoral College Guide

Texas casts 40 electoral votes in presidential elections. Texas's 40 EV (second only to California) are the biggest Republican Electoral College prize. If Texas ever becomes competitive, the Republican Electoral College map collapses. Currently R+9 but has b

40
Electoral Votes
R+9
2024 Result
Safe
Competitiveness
7.4%
Share of 538 Total

Role in the Electoral College

Texas's 40 EV (second only to California) are the biggest Republican Electoral College prize. If Texas ever becomes competitive, the Republican Electoral College map collapses. Currently R+9 but has been declining.

Electoral Vote History

Last Democratic presidential win was Carter in 1976. Trump won by 5.6 points in 2020, then 14 points in 2024, reversing what looked like a path toward competitiveness.

Electoral College Basics

The United States uses an Electoral College system to elect the president. Each state receives electoral votes equal to its total congressional representation: number of House seats + 2 (senators). Texas has 38 House seats + 2 senators = 40 electoral votes.

A candidate needs 270 out of 538 electoral votes to win the presidency. Texas’s 40 electoral votes represent 7.4% of the total needed.

Most states use a winner-take-all system — the popular vote winner receives all electoral votes. The exception is Maine and Nebraska, which allocate electoral votes by congressional district. Texas uses the winner-take-all system.

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Generic Ballot Democrats48.1% Republicans41.1% D+7 Trump Approval Approve39% Disapprove58% Senate D47 R53 House D213 R222 Generic Ballot Tracker Trump Approval Senate 2026 House 2026 Latest Analysis