Likely Republican

Utah Political History & Voting Patterns

Reliably R; anti-Trump LDS streak in 2016-2018; now solidly R again. A complete guide to how Utah has voted in presidential elections, which coalitions have driven results, and how the state has shifted over time.

R+20
Current Lean
6
Electoral Votes
3.4M
Population

Historical Overview

Utah’s politics are dominated by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, which has approximately 60% of the state’s population as members. LDS church values — fiscal conservatism, community solidarity, anti-gambling, pro-family — align naturally with Republicans but created an institutional reluctance toward Trump’s personal conduct. Evan McMullin’s 2016 performance (21%) was unprecedented for a third party in Utah. Mitt Romney’s Senate tenure (2019-2025) represented the LDS institutional Republican tradition. But by 2024, even Utah had fully Trumpified, with John Curtis winning Romney’s seat without qualification.

Key Elections & Turning Points

Year Significance
1964LBJ barely won UT in his 44-state sweep
2016Evan McMullin got 21% — unique anti-Trump LDS protest
2018Romney won Senate — institutionally LDS moderate Republican
2020Trump +20
2024Trump +22; Curtis won Romney seat

Geographic Voting Patterns

Democratic Strongholds

Salt Lake County (D-leaning in local races), Summit County (Park City, D+30+)

Republican Strongholds

Utah County (Provo/BYU, R+60+), Washington County (St. George), Davis County

Realignment Driver

Primary factor: LDS demographic dominance, anti-federal land sentiment, business-class conservatism

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Generic Ballot Democrats48.1% Republicans41.1% D+7 Trump Approval Approve39% Disapprove58% Senate D47 R53 House D213 R222 Generic Ballot Tracker Trump Approval Senate 2026 House 2026 Latest Analysis