Vermont Governor Race 2026

Phil Scott is a political anomaly: a popular Republican governor who has won four consecutive terms in a state that votes D+35 for president. His extraordinary approval ratings and consistent criticism of Trump make him unlike almost any other Republican elected official in America.

Current Governor
Phil Scott (R)
2022 Margin
+40 pts (R)
Presidential Lean
D+35
Approval Rating
~72%

Candidates

CandidatePartyStatusBackground
Phil Scott Republican Expected incumbent Governor since 2017, former Lt. Governor, construction business owner
Democratic TBD Democrat Will run Despite D+35 lean, Scott routinely wins by 30-40 pts due to personal popularity

Key Issues

IssueScott's PositionLegislative Democrats
Climate/Environment Act 250 reform, pragmatic clean energy transition Aggressive climate mandates, heat pump requirements
Housing Zoning reform, increase housing supply, permitting streamline More funding for affordable units, tenant protections
Budget Fiscal restraint, oppose large tax increases Progressive tax increases to fund social programs
Education Reform education finance to reduce property tax burden Maintain Act 60 equity framework, resist cuts

Phil Scott: A Unique Political Figure

Phil Scott is unlike any other Republican governor in America. He has won election in Vermont — the second most Democratic state by presidential vote — four times, most recently in 2022 by approximately 40 percentage points. His approval ratings consistently sit around 70-72%, making him one of the most popular governors in the country.

Scott has repeatedly broken with his national party. He supports abortion polling. He supports expanded background checks for firearms. He has consistently criticized Donald Trump and did not vote for him in either 2016 or 2020. In 2021, he said Trump should have been convicted by the Senate for incitement of insurrection. This is not a governor who operates within MAGA parameters.

Vermont Political Landscape

Vermont is one of the most progressive states in America at the federal level, home to Bernie Sanders — the most prominent democratic socialist in U.S. politics — and represented by Democrats in its congressional delegation. The state legislature is heavily Democratic and regularly passes progressive legislation that Scott often vetoes.

Yet Vermonters have consistently chosen Scott as governor, illustrating the disconnect between federal and state-level voting that is common in New England. The Vermont electorate appears to appreciate Scott's independence, competence, and pragmatic approach to governance even when they disagree with the national Republican Party.

2026 Outlook

If Phil Scott runs for a fifth term, he is heavily favored to win again. His approval ratings show no sign of collapse, and the Vermont Democratic Party has struggled to recruit a candidate who can compete with his personal popularity.

The interesting question is whether Scott runs at all. He has shown no clear interest in pursuing national office — his independence from the national Republican Party makes a Senate or presidential run politically awkward. Vermont's term limits do not apply to the governorship (there are no term limits), so the only constraint is Scott's own decision. Watch for his announcement in mid-2025.

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Generic Ballot Democrats48.1% Republicans41.1% D+7 Trump Approval Approve39% Disapprove58% Senate D47 R53 House D213 R222 Generic Ballot Tracker Trump Approval Senate 2026 House 2026 Latest Analysis