Wisconsin 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Wisconsin in the 2026 midterm elections.
Toss-Up
2026 State Rating
+0.9
Trump 2024 Margin
Manufacturing economy, abortion, tariff impact on dairy/agriculture
Key Issue
Wisconsin
State
2026 Election Overview
Wisconsin is the perpetual swing state. Governor Evers faces what will be a close reelection. Competitive House districts. No Senate seat up in 2026. The dairy tariff impact on Wisconsin agriculture is a live political issue.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Toss-Up |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +0.9 |
| U.S. Senate | Tammy Baldwin (D) won in 2024 — not up; Ron Johnson won in 2022 |
| Governor | Tony Evers (D) — up for reelection, competitive |
| U.S. House Seats | 5R, 3D — WI-1, WI-3 competitive |
| Key Issue | Manufacturing economy, abortion, tariff impact on dairy/agriculture |
Forecast
Evers reelection is a toss-up. WI-1 and WI-3 House seats are competitive. Wisconsin’s outcome often mirrors the national environment exactly.