- Only 20% of Americans trust the federal government "just about always" or "most of the time" in 2026 — a 40-year low, down from 75% in 1964 and 27% as recently as 2023.
- Congress approval stands at 15% with 82% disapproval — part of a sustained collapse below 25% since the 2008 financial crisis, now reaching its floor range.
- SCOTUS approval fell from 53% in 2020 to 43% in 2026, driven by the Dobbs decision — the sharpest single-event drop in Court approval in modern polling history.
- 75% of Americans say the federal government is "broken" or "needs major change" — including significant shares of Republicans (38% distrust even framed broadly), making anti-incumbent sentiment genuinely bipartisan.
Federal Government Trust: Historical Trend
Percentage trusting federal government to do what is right "just about always" or "most of the time." Source: Pew Research Center Trust in Government series, 1958–2026.
| Year | Trust % | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 1964 | 75% | Post-JFK, Great Society optimism |
| 1972 | 53% | Vietnam War, Watergate beginning |
| 1980 | 27% | Post-Watergate, Iran hostages, stagflation |
| 2001 | 57% | Post-9/11 unity surge |
| 2007 | 24% | Iraq War, Bush second term |
| 2017 | 20% | Trump first term — partisan division |
| 2021 | 24% | Biden honeymoon, COVID relief |
| 2023 | 27% | Post-2022 midterm, modest recovery |
| 2026 | 20% | Trump second term DOGE era — 40-year low |
Confidence by Institution (April 2026)
Congress
Congress approval has rarely exceeded 25% since 2008. The current 15% reflects bipartisan disgust: Republicans disapprove of Democratic obstruction; Democrats disapprove of Republican governance. Only 8% of independents approve. Congress is structurally unpopular.
Supreme Court
Post-Dobbs, SCOTUS polling dropped from 53% to the low 40s. The current 43% remains below pre-2022 norms. The Court's conservative 6-3 supermajority and its series of high-profile decisions on abortion, executive power, and gun rights have sustained partisan polarization of court views.
Military
The US military remains the most trusted institution in American life by a wide margin. 71% express "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence. The number has declined modestly from 73% in 2023, with the Hegseth confirmation and DOGE defense workforce questions introducing some uncertainty.
Electoral Implications of Low Trust
Low institutional trust historically benefits the out-party in midterm elections. When voters distrust governing institutions, they tend to punish the party in power. However, the current pattern is unusual: trust is low across the board, including in Congress (controlled by Republicans) and the federal government broadly (under Republican executive control).
The specific mechanism: voters who distrust government are more likely to vote in midterm elections when that distrust is directed at the ruling party. The 2026 environment, with a Democratic generic ballot lead of D+6, suggests that institutional frustration is currently channeled primarily as opposition to the ruling Republican coalition rather than as general anti-incumbency sentiment.
